David Benavidez Vs. Caleb Plant: Odds, Records, Prediction

More than David Benavidez’s power and more than Caleb Plant’s intelligence and technical boxing ability, their 168-pound PPV showdown on Saturday is all about the two personalities going into the ring. And how much these two guys purportedly despise each other. Benavidez vs. Plant is one of the most anticipated fights of the year, and partially, it’s because there seems to be true hatred between the two. Here’s everything you need to know about David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Benavidez is one of the best super middleweights around. So is Plant. But that’s not really what this fight is about. No, it’s a grudge match with a nasty leadup, and both fighters have tossed personal barbs at each other. Benavidez has called Plant “fake.” Plant has simmered because Benavidez’s father has mentioned Plant’s late daughter. Plant has ripped Benavidez for his past cocaine use. Benavidez has hurled misogynistic slurs at Plant, and Plant has responded back with the same.

If they don’t really despise each other, they’re doing a pretty good job of fooling just about everybody.

But as famed trainer Buddy McGirt recently said, neither fighter can let their emotions cloud their game plan and performance.

“You have to be able to control the bad blood,” he said. “You can’t go in there with one thing in mind, just trying to knock him out. You can walk into something you might not want to. You have to take it and use it to your advantage and use it in a way that’s going to make the fight easier. If you go in there trying to gun him out, you’ll wind up getting gunned out.”

Benavidez certainly has the edge in power. He’s aggressive, and he’s an accurate puncher with big-time strength. And Plant has been hurt by opponents in the past.

“You can see that every time Caleb is in the ring with a power puncher, he’s not comfortable,” Benavidez said. “He beat Jose Uzcategui but he was hurt in the fight and then Canelo hurt him. Even Anthony Dirrell hit him with good shots, and he’s not a hitter like that. I’ve got the power and I feel like I’m faster. I just have to get my feet in the right position, because he’s going to be moving a lot. I think he has a little bit more confidence after beating Dirrell, though, so we’ll see if he wants to trade with me.

Though Plant isn’t known as a power punches, remember, this is what happened the last time Plant was in the ring.

Said Plant: “If Benavidez wants to come forward, then he should just handle his business how he sees fit. That’s what I’m going to do on March 25. We’re going to get in there, roll the dice and see what happens.”

Here’s more info on the David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on PPV.com or on Showtime PPV for $74.99 beginning at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday.

David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant odds

The more Benavidez talks, the wider his odds get. As of Friday afternoon, Benavidez was a -400 betting favorite (up from -350 earlier in the week), meaning you’d have to bet $400 to win $100. Plant, meanwhile, is the +275 underdog (win $275 on a $100 bet). If you think Plant would beat Benavidez at least three times out of 10 chances, you’d be getting value on his money line. If not, you could go with Benavidez to win by stoppage at -163 or Benavidez to win by stoppage in rounds 7-12 at +137.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Benavidez to beat Plant by stoppage at -163, Jose Ramirez to beat Richard Commey by decision at -163 and Chris Colbert to beat Jose Valenzuela at -138. If all of those were to hit, you’d make a $349 profit on a $100 wager.

David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant records

Benavidez, a former two-time 168-pound titlist, has an impressive record at 26-0 with 23 KOs. But he still hasn’t faced an A-level fighter (until, that is, he steps into the ring with Plant). So far, his most impressive victories have come against fighters like Anthony Dirrell, Ronald Ellis and a faded David Lemieux. Yes, Benavidez has defeated former world titlists, but he’s never beaten a top-three contender in his weight class.

It’ll be interesting to see if Plant (22-1, 13 KOs), whose only loss came to Canelo Alvarez, has fully recovered from his first career defeat. Alvarez is a no-doubt-about-it first-ball Hall of Famer, and though Benavidez is ultra-talented, we don’t know if he’s on the same historical level of Alvarez (it seems unlikely). We know Plant can beat the likes of Jose Uzcategui and a faded Caleb Truax—fighters good enough to win world titles but not good enough to ever sniff the pound-for-pound list —but we don’t know if he can get by an elite fighter like Benavidez.

David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant prediction

If Plant can avoid Benavidez’s power for the entire 12 rounds, he’s got a great chance to outbox his opponent and score the mild upset. But with Benavidez’s pressure style and his KO ability, that seems unlikely. If Plant can’t hurt Benavidez with his own punching power and earn his respect, that will make his night much more difficult. Ultimately, Benavidez’s strength will be enough to send Plant to his second loss. Say, Benavidez by 10^th-round stoppage.