Joel Embiid Is The Current NBA MVP Favorite, But It’s Still Anyone’s Race

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has been the front-runner for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award for the past few months, but Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo aren’t going down without a fight.

Heading into Saturday, Embiid was the slight MVP favorite at -175, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, although Jokic (+270) and Antetokounmpo (+420) aren’t far behind. Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum is the only other player on the board at +12000, which means this is down to a three-man race heading into the final two weeks of the 2022-23 season.

Although plenty of fans and analysts thought Jokic had his third straight MVP in the bag earlier this season, this race remains wide-open.

Shortly after Antetokounmpo’s Bucks reeled off a 16-game winning streak—which Embiid’s Sixers snapped in Milwaukee—Jokic’s Nuggets dropped four straight games and lost five in a six-game stretch. Meanwhile, the Sixers rattled off an eight-game win streak of their own, starting with that victory over the Bucks.

All three players will have a chance to make their closing statement against one another over the coming days, too. The Nuggets are hosting the Bucks on Saturday and the Sixers on Monday, while the Sixers head back to Milwaukee on Saturday, April 2 for their final game against the Bucks this season. Those head-to-head results could help sway voters in one direction or another, particularly if one of the MVP candidates decisively outplays the others.

Embiid started closing Jokic’s lead in the MVP odds after a come-from-behind 126-119 victory over the Nuggets in late January. He went off for a game-high 47 points on 18-of-31 shooting, 18 rebounds, five assists, three steals and two blocks, while Jokic sputtered after halftime thanks to the Sixers’ decision to switch P.J. Tucker onto him defensively. Embiid also had 31 points on 11-of-22 shooting, 10 assists and six rebounds in the furious rally over Milwaukee in early March, including a go-ahead three-pointer with 42 seconds left.

While the discourse around this year’s MVP race has grown increasingly toxic, Jokic, Embiid and Antetokounmpo are all worthy candidates. In fact, all three are vastly outpacing the production of some past MVPs.

Jokic is averaging nearly 25 points per game on a league-high 70.5 true shooting percentage, and he’s threatening to become the first center in NBA history to average a triple-double across an entire season. He also leads the league in most (all?) catch-all advanced metrics, including box plus/minus, value over replacement player, PER and win shares. Despite their recent slump, the Nuggets are also three games ahead of the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies for the best record in the West.

Embiid is leading the league in scoring for the second straight season with a career-high 33.4 points on a career-high 54.7 percent shooting. In March, he set a Sixers franchise record with 10 straight 30-plus-point games, and he tied LeBron James’ all-time NBA record with seven straight games of 30-plus points on 55 percent shooting or better. The Sixers have the league’s third-best offense and sixth-best defense in large part because of him.

Antetokounmpo’s efficiency is slightly lower (54.9 percent) than it has been in seasons past, but he’s making up for it with a career-high 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game. He isn’t just the only player who’s averaging 30-10-5 this season; he’s the only player averaging even 25-10-5. The Bucks also have the NBA’s best record at 53-20 and the best defense.

How all three players—and their respective teams—finish the season could wind up deciding this year’s MVP race.

“Right now in the MVP race, I think it’s Joel. I think it’s Joel’s award to lose,” Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green said on a recent episode of his podcast. (And that was before Embiid went off for 46 points, nine rebounds and eight assists in a shorthanded loss to the Warriors on Friday.) “I think the way he loses that award is (if) his team starts losing. Joel’s going to put up Joel numbers, Joel going to do what Joel has been doing. It’s Joel’s award to lose.”

The Sixers have the NBA’s toughest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon, as their opponents have a combined .572 winning percentage. They finish a back-to-back against the Phoenix Suns on Saturday before Monday’s showdown with Jokic and the Nuggets, and they still have games left against the Bucks, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks, Toronto Raptors, Dallas Mavericks and Brooklyn Nets as well.

Following the Nuggets’ two-game slate against the Bucks and Sixers, they’ll face the New Orleans Pelicans next Thursday and then head to Phoenix on the second night of a back-to-back (with Kevin Durant likely back in the fold). They close out the season with a three-game road trip against the Houston Rockets, Suns and Utah Jazz before hosting the Sacramento Kings at home on the second night of a back-to-back.

The Bucks might have the easiest remaining schedule of the three. While they still have games left against the Nuggets, Sixers and Celtics, they also face the Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Washington Wizards and Chicago Bulls, all of whom are either already eliminated from playoff contention or are on the fringes of the play-in tournament. That could buy them an opportunity to rest Antetokounmpo and their other key stars ahead of the playoffs, which might hurt his chances to make a huge statement in these final two weeks.

If the Sixers start to skid—particularly with the availability of James Harden (Achilles) in question—they’ll leave the door wide open for Jokic or Antetokounmpo to supplant Embiid as the MVP favorite. But if Embiid outplays Jokic and Antetokounmpo and guides the Sixers to wins over the Nuggets and Bucks, that might be enough to seal up the MVP that has eluded him over the past few seasons.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.