Furman Are A #13 Seed With Genuine Upset Potential

In the history of the Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament, there have been 144 matchups between the fourth and thirteenth seed. The fourth seed has won 113 of them; the thirteenth seed has won only 31.

A near-4:1 advantage is, undeniably, statistically significant. However, March Madness would not be March Madness were it not for the prospect of upsets. And in what will be only the second game of the tournament, there exists a good chance of a 32nd one.

In that thirteenth spot in the South Regional are the Furman Paladins, who have made the tournament for only the seventh time in their history, and for the first time since 1980. They got there in some style, dominating the Southern Conference from start to finish with a 15-3 regular season record, and winning 14 of their last 15 games.

The Southern Conference, of course, is a conference one must sweep to make the tournament. It is one of the middest of the mid-majors, and not a place for at-large bids. Furman were the biggest fish in a small pond, and in their non-conference schedule, nice wins against power conference opponents Penn State and South Carolina State were tempered by a healthy loss against NC State, the best opponent they faced in what was only the 249th-toughest schedule.

Nonetheless, the fact that Furman have not yet been truly tested should not obfuscate the impressive season they have had so far. It is not just what they have done, but how they have done it, that makes them an eye-opener in this tournament.

On the season, the Paladins have put in some impressive offensive numbers. They ranked seventh in the country in points per game (out of 363), scoring 82.1 points per contest on a healthy 48.3% shooting percentage (18th). They do so in large part by putting up the 11th-most three-pointers in the nation, and while their team-wide shooting efficiency from downtown of only 34.7% ranks far more in the middle of the pack (159th), the numbers speak to the pace that the Paladins like to play at, and the constant pressure they apply.

The engine that drives it is lead guard Mike Bothwell, one of the foremost transition players in the country. Always on the go, the lefty will drive, push the ball and raise up, always on the attack and the main driver of the high pace. In terms of his style of play, Bothwell reminds the viewer of a March Madness darling of a few years back, Jairus Lyles of the UMBC Retrievers. And that comparison could be particularly apt given who Furman’s opponent in the first round will be.

Everything that the Virginia Cavaliers will do and have ever done under the stewardship of head coach Tony Bennett has been based around their defensive scheme, the Pack Line Defense. It is this intricate, complex and rather unique defensive strategy around which a powerhouse program has been built over the last few seasons. Deliberately slow in their approach – eschewing some transition play and offensive rebounding aggression in deference to establishing defensive position, and as a result ranking 360th/fourth-last in the nation in pace on the season – the Cavaliers try to smother opponents, grind them down, and eke out small victories in low-scoring slugfests.

It usually works, too. Only four years ago, Bennett’s Virginia rode the no. 1 seed all the way to the championship, courtesy of the discipline of the Pack Line. Indeed, part of what made that national title such a story was the fact that, one year prior, they had become the first #1 seed to ever lose a men’s NCAA Tournament game to a #16 seed, in an upset so historic that it has its own Wikipedia page.

On that night, the limitations of the rigidity of Virginia’s play became their downfall. Fuelled by Lyles’s shot-making brilliance, the Kangaroos took a surprising lead, and because of the methodical pace they had had ingrained into them, the Cavaliers simply ran out of time to cut back into it.

A fast-paced, dynamic, free-wheeling team with scoring options at every position proved to be anathema to the mastery of the Pack Line that night. And when eyeing up a Furman line-up featuring Bothwell, two-way star Jalen Lawson and the dynamic guard pairing of JP Pegues and Marcus Foster – all of whom have the green line, average double-figures in scoring, and who can put them up in bunches – the Cavaliers would be remiss if they did not have flashbacks to that nightmare of five years ago.

Furman are a legitimate 13th seed, not a 16th, and a team with a legitimate shot at upsetting what was a national title-winning Cavaliers team. The Pack Line giveth, yet the Pack Line also taketh away. Much as Bennett will remember – and have learned from – the 2018 upset, it will nevertheless be unnerving to see the similarities between that UMBC team and the Furman side of this year.

In 2019, a reinvigorated Virginia team dispensed with the failure of 2018 as emphatically as they could have done. But four years on, this is a completely new Cavaliers team, in the same old system. Perhaps this five-year gap will mean they will not be held back by fears of a repeat of the past. But after 43 years away, Furman definitely won’t.