What To Expect In The Tightest Premier League Relegation Battle In A Decade

With twelve games remaining in the Premier League 2022/23 season, just five points separate Crystal Palace in 12th and Southampton in 20th.

In short, any of the nine teams from Crystal Palace down are at risk of relegation.

Over the past decade, no team higher than 15th in the table at this point in the season has got relegated. In that time, Hull City were the best team after 26 games to down. Hull were 15th in 2014/15 with 26 points, but won just two of their final dozen games to finish on 35 points. Leicester City, who were bottom that year after 26 games, survived and went on to win the league the year after.

In seven of the past ten seasons, the relegated sides were either already in the bottom three at this stage, or were outside the bottom three on goal difference.

Over the past ten seasons, the gap between 12th and bottom after 26 games has been an average of 12.8 points, more than twice what it is this season.

In only three seasons has the gap been ten or fewer points, the tightest battle being in 2017/18 when only seven points split the bottom nine teams after 26 games, but even then, three of the bottom four after 26 games still went down.

Forty points is seen as the magic number that guarantees safety, but in eight of the past ten seasons, 36 points would have been enough.

This season is no ordinary season though. Rather, it is more like the 2010/11 Premier League season, when just six points separated the bottom nine at this stage, and the teams in 14th (Birmingham City) and 16th (Blackpool) after 26 games ended up relegated. Bottom side Wolverhampton Wanderers ended up surviving, reaching the magic 40 points to finish in 17th, one point ahead of Birmingham City.

Could this season be like 2010/11, when forty points was needed to survive? Probably not, as 27 points after 26 games that season was only good enough for 17th then, rather than 12th like Crystal Palace this season.

With such small margins separating the bottom half of the Premier League at the moment though, form and fixtures are more crucial than ever.

Crystal Palace are probably the most off-form side in the bottom nine, with no wins in their last eleven games. That run of fixtures was tough though, and Palace now have a much more attractive fixture list than the sides below them, facing every single side in the bottom eight between now and the end of the season, with five of those matches at home.

Leicester City, despite losing their last four games, also have a reassuring run-in, facing six of the bottom nine, with four of those games at home.

Leeds United, also face six of the bottom nine, with three games at Elland Road, including back-to-back home games against Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace. Their dreadful run of one win in thirteen is probably the worst after Palace though.

When fixtures are accounted for, the bottom of the table looks rather different. One way of doing this is “The Other 14” baseline tracker, which works off a baseline of home wins against non-“big six” clubs, and defeats in every other match.

This tracker has West Ham United, Southampton and Everton occupying the bottom three spots, all five or six points behind the 39-point baseline.

Given the struggles of Liverpool and Chelsea this season, a tracker based on the “big six” might not be the best way of looking at a team’s season, especially in light of Bournemouth and Southampton’s great results this weekend against Liverpool and Manchester United, respectively. But the baseline tracker does show that despite not currently in the bottom three, Everton and West Ham are in real danger.

Everton have done well since Sean Dyche replaced Frank Lampard, with three wins in seven games. But the Toffees have a tough run coming up and only have one home fixture left against a bottom-nine club, their match against Bournemouth on the final day of the season.

That’s probably the most-difficult fixture list of any side in the bottom nine, and Everton have also played a game more than everyone but Wolves.

Southampton and Nottingham Forest have the next most difficult schedules. They each have just four games against the bottom nine, with two of those at home and two away.

Forest have the best home form in the bottom half, but the joint-worst away form in the league, so home ties against Wolves and Southampton will be especially important in their battle for survival.

West Ham are one of those clubs tied with Forest for worst away form, and only face two bottom-nine sides at home between now and the end of the season. The first of those is Southampton next weekend which will be a huge game for West Ham’s survival chances.

Southampton and Bournemouth’s recent form has given them a strong chance of staying in the Premier League, creating one of the most exciting relegation battles in recent history.

The smallest margins could decide who survives in 17th and who goes down, and having just one or two more key home fixtures against other relegation contenders could make all the difference.