Aaron Judge, Yankees Sit Atop AL East Opening Day True-Talent Rankings

For the rest of March, I’ll be taking a look at the Opening Day true-talent rankings of the 30 MLB clubs on a division-by-division basis. While the rankings are based on actual 2022 batted-ball data, off-season player movement and potential impact of 2023 rookies will be addressed. Today, we start it off with the AL East.

1 – New York Yankees – ”Tru” Talent Record = 103-59 – Offensive Rating = 116.2 (2nd), Pitching Rating = 84.9 (3rd), Defensive Rating = 103.6 (24th) IN: LHP Carlos Rodon, RHP Tommy Kahnle; OUT: RHP Jameson Taillon, OF Andrew Benintendi, LHP Aroldis Chapman, RHP Chad Green, DH Matt Carpenter

Typically, high-achieving, high-payroll clubs tend to have relatively boring spring trainings. Not this bunch. Their 103-59 “Tru” Talent record was largely compiled on the strength of an unbelievable first half, when their run prevention was clicking on all cylinders. This was not a great team in the second half after the back end of their bullpen had to be overhauled after Aroldis Chapman and Michael King were out of the equation. Aaron Judge was their only source of constant excellence throughout the season, though Gerrit Cole wasn’t so bad himself.

The focus of this team currently is fixed upon the kids. Oswald Peraza is pushing Isiah Kiner-Falefa for the starting shortstop job, Oswaldo Cabrera is pressing Aaron Hicks in left field, and Anthony Volpe is simply blowing everyone away as he tries to force himself into the mix somewhere. OF Jasson Dominguez has also impressed, but he has all of 22 Double-A at bats under his belt. While the fan base surely wants the club to move past the likes of Kiner-Falefa, Hicks and 3B Josh Donaldson, it’s probably not going to be that simple.

Rodon’s an upgrade over Taillon, but Frankie Montas will miss most or all of the season, and Jordan Montgomery is now a Cardinal. The overall run prevention isn’t likely to be quite as good this time around.

The Yankees will attempt to pull off the difficult daily double of implementing a youth movement while contending for hardware in a tough division. They conceivably could pull it off, but it will likely be a wild ride.

2 – Toronto Blue Jays – ”Tru” Talent Record = 92-70 – Offensive Rating = 115.1 (4th), Pitching Rating = 100.9 (17th), Defensive Rating = 99.0 (14th) – IN: RHP Chris Bassitt, LF Daulton Varsho, DH Brandon Belt, CF Kevin Kiermaier, RHP Erik Swanson, RHP Chad Green; OUT: RF Teoscar Hernandez, RHP Ross Stripling, C Gabriel Moreno, LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

That’s an awful lot of high-end turnover for a playoff club. The Jays appeared well on their way to becoming the best offensive club of this era not all that long ago, but I don’t like the moves they’ve made on that front. Varsho’s a versatile athlete who brings a lot to the table, but his batted ball data doesn’t suggest sustained middle of the order impact. Think Cavan Biggio redux. Belt’s always injured. Ditto Kiermaier. Taking the mid-2022 addition of Whit Merrifield into account, the Blue Jays have added an awful lot of outs to the bottom half of the batting order. The club dealt with its glut of catchers by moving Moreno, who had the highest upside of the group. Swapping out Hernandez, Gurriel and Moreno essentially for Varsho, Kiermaier and Belt will prove to be a net negative.

I do like their moves on the pitching side. Though I love Stripling, Bassitt is one of the most underrated starters in the game, and should prove to be an upgrade in both quality and quantity. The bullpen should be deeper with the additions of Swanson and the still-rehabbing Green.

Rookies are unlikely to contribute much at the outset for the Jays, but as the season unfolds LHP Ricky Tiedemann and 3B Orelvis Martinez could get the call. Tiedemann in particular could make noise, as he’s a consistent bat-misser and the bottom of the Jays’ rotation (Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi) is quite dicey.

3 – Tampa Bay Rays – “Tru” Talent Record = 87-75 – Offensive Rating = 93.3 (21st), Pitching Rating = 90.3 (6th), Defensive Rating = 96.4 (6th) – IN: RHP Zach Eflin; OUT: 1B Ji-Man Choi, LHP Brooks Raley, LHP Ryan Yarbrough; CF Kevin Kiermaier, RHP J.P. Feyereisen, RHP Corey Kluber, LF David Peralta

Typical Rays’ offseason. They wave goodbye to a bunch of departing free agents who served them well, but who couldn’t be accommodated by the club’s modest payroll. They say hello to an advanced stats darling in Eflin that they valued more than the marketplace. For the record, I believe this investment will be vindicated. All in all, the end result should be Rays-esque as well, as the club should be in the mix for a playoff spot all season.

They should get some low-cost, potentially high-reward additions from their farm system as the season unfolds. 1B Kyle Manzardo is a big bat whose production should translate to this level, and 3B Curtis Mead is another bat-first guy who still needs some polish at the hot corner. On the mound, RHP Taj Bradley could be a rotation factor by mid-season after dominating both upper minor league levels in 2022.

4 – Boston Red Sox – “Tru” Talent Record = 78-84 – Offensive Rating = 103.8 (10th), Pitching Rating = 109.3 (24th), Defensive Rating = 98.9 (12th) – IN: RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Chris Martin, LF Masataka Yoshida, RHP Corey Kluber, 3B Justin Turner, CF Adam Duvall, SS Adalberto Mondesi; OUT: SS Xander Bogaerts, LHP Matt Strahm, 1B Eric Hosmer, RHP Nathan Eovaldi, LHP Rich Hill, DH J.D. Martinez, LF Tommy Pham, RHP Michael Wacha, RHP Matt Barnes

Talk about turnover. Obviously, the big loss is Bogaerts, and while I don’t think he’s worth his Padres’ contract, it still hurts the Bosox. Strahm, Eovaldi, Martinez and Wacha were also solid contributors to the 2022 club, and are gone. They have been replaced by the consistent but declining Turner and a bunch of high variance replacements. Jansen could be a solid closer or totally implode. Kluber is good when healthy, but hasn’t been healthy often. Duvall is a feast or famine streak power hitter. And Mondesi is in a class all of his own, between his injuries, strikeouts, triples and stolen bases. Fun fact, Mondesi has only exceeded 291 plate appearances in a season once.

The most consequential addition from both a financial and on-field perspective is Yoshida. One can never be truly confident about a hitter coming over from the Far East for the first time. Yes there have been Ohtanis and Matsuis, but there have also been Tsutsugos. I doubt that the Sox’ new left fielder will bust, as he’s a hit-before-power guy with a pretty pure swing and sound plate discipline. But the Sox better be right, as they’ve largely replaced Bogaert’s dollars with Yoshida’s. Think more Kosuke Fukudome or Seiya Suzuki.

Rookie Triston Casas is expected to be the club’s everyday first baseman and perhaps leadoff hitter. He wouldn’t be the prototypical leadoff man, as he is wholly devoid of speed, but his feel for the strike zone and for hitting in general will serve him well. Ceddanne Rafaela has a quality glove that plays all over the field, particularly in the outfield, and has a chance to hit. Keep an eye on multipositional bat Enmanuel Valdez, acquired from the Astros last season. He’s not great with the glove anywhere, but the bat carries. Lefty Brayan Bello has the raw materials to succeed as an MLB starter. He has been slowed by forearm tightness this spring, but should be a factor in due time.

5 – Baltimore Orioles – ”Tru” Record = 75-87 – Offensive Rating = 98.6 (17th), Pitching Rating = 105.0 (21st), Defensive Rating = 101.8 (22nd) – IN: RHP Kyle Gibson, 2B Adam Frazier, C James McCann, LHP Cole Irvin; OUT: RHP Jordan Lyles

Not a lot of turnover here. Let’s get this straight from the outset – the O’s were not as good as their record last season. My batted ball-based method says they were eight games worse. That said, this team is clearly on the right track, with youngsters like C Adley Rutschman and 3B Gunnar Henderson poised for starring roles in their first full major league seasons. Their chief offseason acquisitions, Gibson and Irvin, at least give them stability and innings though they match up quite poorly with the other AL East #1-2 starters.

It’s all about the kids here. Beyond Rutschman and Henderson, Colton Cowser could be the next kid to invade the starting lineup, most likely on an outfield corner. He projects to have a combination of power and competent defense. Other bats to keep an eye on include 3B Jordan Westburg, 2B Connor Norby and UT Joey Ortiz. Westburg has shown more tools than skills to this point, but has the arm and power potential to be a quality starter. Norby and Ortiz are bat-first types who should at least evolve into MLB contributors.

Grayson Rodriguez is one of the best starting pitcher prospects in the game, and is likely to start the season in the Oriole rotation. He’ll likely be babied a bit at first, but if all goes well, he’ll be the club’s 2024 Opening Day starter. Lefty DL Hall has big stuff but some control issues, and the organization has waffled on his role as of late, shuffling him between the rotation and pen. Here’s to hoping the club shows patience and grooms him for a starter role. Keep an eye on Drew Rom – he lacks the high-octane stuff of Rodriguez and Hall, but has a feel to pitch that should eventually earn him a material MLB role.

Expect a small step back from the O’s in 2023 before they continue their ascent in 2024.