Topline
A cyclone that has spent the past 31 days traversing essentially the entire length of the Indian Ocean has likely broken the world record for the longest-surviving tropical storm, according to the World Meteorological Organization, though its worst impacts to land could come this weekend.
Forecasters monitor Cyclone Freddy at the France weather station, Meteo France, in Saint Denis de la … [+]
Key Facts
Cyclone Freddy was situated just off the west coast of Madagascar on Tuesday afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph—the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane in the northern hemisphere.
The storm is expected to reach potentially devastating Category 3 strength in the coming days before it makes landfall in Mozambique over the weekend—more than two weeks after it hit the southeast African country as the equivalent of a tropical storm.
Freddy was first named on February 6 as it moved between Indonesia and Western Australia, before spending the next two weeks moving westward on a more than 5,000-mile long path across the Indian Ocean and eventually making its first landfall in Madagascar at Category 3 strength on February 21.
Freddy has packed major hurricane strength—Category 3 or higher—through much of its lifespan, peaking at Category 5 intensity with 165 mph winds on February 18 and 19.
The storm’s strength has oscillated at times, and it has rapidly intensified on six occasions—setting a world record.
At least 21 deaths have been reported in its two landfalls so far in Madagascar and Mozambique, where some 8,000 people have been displaced.
Crucial Quote
“At this time, it does appear to be a new record holder for ‘longest-lasting’ recorded tropical cyclone … but we are continuing to monitor the situation,” World Meteorological Organization researcher Randall Cerveny said in a statement. The group plans to form a committee to determine with certainty whether a record has been set after Freddy dissipates.
What To Watch For
Freddy should weaken as it moves over Mozambique this weekend, but how and when the storm will eventually dissipate remains unclear, as hurricane forecasting loses considerable accuracy beyond a timeframe of a few days. But at least one major computer model—the National Weather Service’s Global Forecast System—predicts Freddy will reemerge in the Indian Ocean early next week and restrengthen, possibly prolonging its life span for 10 days or more.
Key Background
Cyclone Freddy is a rare example of a storm that crossed tropical basins, originating in the Australian region before moving into the South-West Indian Ocean—a basin which only accounts for about 11% of tropical activity worldwide, according to the Washington Post. The storm has already set a southern hemisphere record for Accumulated Cyclone Energy—a measure of the energy a storm generates throughout its lifespan—and is closing in on the world record set by Hurricane Ioke in 2006. The previous record-holder for longest-lived tropical system was Hurricane John of 1994, at 31 days.
Further Reading
Cyclone Freddy teeters on brink of Category 5 strength in Indian Ocean (Washington Post)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2023/03/07/month-old-cyclone-freddy-sets-world-record-for-longest-lived-tropical-storm/