Dodgers Need Comparable Quality But More Quantity From Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin

In recent weeks in this space, I’ve rolled out my annual MLB Best Pitches series. Click to see the pitch-specific articles on changeups, curves, cutters, splitters, four-seam fastballs, sinkers and sliders. Last week, we brought it all together, combining the grades for each pitch in the arsenals of all 80 pitchers who threw 135 or more innings in 2022 to calculate starting pitcher Grade-Point Averages. Beginning with Spencer Strider, we’ve been looking at a handful of notable starters who just missed the 135 inning threshold.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, despite only winning a single World Series in the 2020 COVID-19-shortened season, have been baseball’s best team for a few years now. The cast of characters has changed a bit each season, but the club kept both their talent and payroll levels high. 2023, however, feels a little bit different.

The Dodgers have similarly excelled at both run scoring and run prevention. On the latter front, they have had an embarrassment of riches over the years. That term took on a new meaning last season, as Trevor Bauer didn’t pitch at all as he served out his suspension for sexual assault. The righthander was still owed $32 million for 2023, but the club is now on the hook for “only” $22.5 million as they have cut ties with him. In previous years, the Dodgers didn’t worry too much about “dead money”, but they haven’t been their usual extravagant selves heading into this season

Take a wild guess who the Dodgers’ best starter was in 2022 according to my batted ball-based methods. It was lefty Tyler Anderson, who has departed to the Angels via free agency, with 23.3 Total Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA), good for 7th in the NL. And the Dodgers had a multiple-car pileup right behind him in the rankings. Lefty Julio Urias (22.1 TPRAA) finished 10th, Clayton Kershaw (20.5 TPRAA) finished 11th and Tony Gonsolin (15.2 TPRAA) finished 15th. While Anderson and Urias pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, Kershaw (126 1/3 IP) and Gonsolin (130 1/3 IP) fell well short.

With Anderson no longer in the fold, the Dodgers are counting on Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May to shore up the back end of the rotation. To make matters worse, another ace, Walker Buehler will miss all of 2023 after Tommy John surgery. May is supposedly fully healthy after a TJ surgery of his own in 2021, but any way you slice it, the Dodgers absolutely need Kershaw and Gonsolin to be more durable in the #2-3 slots in their rotation this time around. Let’s take a look at their respective histories and repertoires to see what the club can expect.

CLAYTON KERSHAW

Of all of the great active starting pitchers, the only one that I believe can be placed in the inner circle group of the greatest of all time is Kershaw. You can basically break down pitching into a handful of fundamental disciplines: bat-missing, command, contact management and durability. Kershaw is as good as it gets in the first three of those disciplines. A 197-87, 2.48, career record with a dazzling 2807/629 K/BB in 2581 innings and a 157 ERA+ is beyond special.

It’s on the durability front that Kershaw loses some points. He hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title since 2019, and hasn’t logged 200 innings in a season since 2015. Yes, the game has changed, and not as much is asked of starting pitchers as in past eras, but Sandy Alcantara is helping the pendulum swing back into the other direction of late. Even a healthy Kershaw isn’t likely to ever again pitch 200 innings.

Kershaw threw three of his pitches enough to receive pitch grades in 2022. He received “A” grades for both of his breaking pitches, his curve and slider, which he threw 16.3% and 42..7% of the time, respectively. He received a “B” grade for his four-seam fastball, which he threw 38.9% of the time.

His curve is quite distinctive stylistically. Its average velocity is quite low at 73.2 mph and its average vertical movement is quite high at 9.8 inches. Both its pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Score (76) and whiff rate (17.6%) were about a full standard deviation better than average. In particular, Kershaw throttled fly ball authority (46 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) with his curve.

I’d argue that his slider is his true out pitch. Its 22.4% whiff rate would have ranked 4th among qualifiers and his 85 Adjusted Contact Score was above one-half standard deviation better than average. He posted a 47.9% grounder rate with the pitch, well above the qualifiers’ average of 34.8%, and he also shut down fly ball authority (54 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) with his slider.

His slider’s usage rate was fractionally behind only Dylan Cease among qualifiers. So, two Grade A breakers, what’s not to like? Well, breaking ball artists are more susceptible to injury and performance breakdowns over time. Barry Zito, Madison Bumgarner and Patrick Corbin can tell you all about it. Kershaw used to have a great fastball too, and was virtually unassailable.

His four-seamer is a very interesting one – its 77 Adjusted Contact Score makes it the best contact-management four-seamer, and its 3.7% whiff rate makes it the worst bat-misser. Quite a dichotomy. Like his slider, the four-seamer features low velocity (90.8 mph) and plenty of vertical movement (10.0 in.). Such a low swing-and-miss rate is pretty scary. Any deterioration in either of his breaking balls – something that naturally happens over time, even to the game’s greats – means that Kershaw will have to ask things of his fastball that it simply can’t deliver.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Kershaw has another ERA-qualifying season or two in him, but I do believe that it’s unrealistic to anticipate any more expectation-defying seasons quality-wise from him. There’s simply not much of a precedent for excellence from guys with 3.7% four-seam whiff rates, and risk rates for pitchers who pace the game in slider usage are also quite high. I don’t like his odds for continued long-term success.

TONY GONSOLIN

First of all, as good as Gonsolin is, it must be emphasized that his 2022 season was one of the single luckiest in recent memory. He went 16-1, 2.14 – his FIP was over a full run higher at 3.28. Now my batted ball-based methods are a little kinder to him – his “Tru” ERA- of 74 is better than his FIP- of 82, though still not nearly as good as his 54 ERA-.

Three of his pitches qualified for pitch grades – like Kershaw, Gonsolin’s slider received an “A” and his four-seamer received a “B”, while his splitter got a “B+”. His slider was better at managing contact (61 Adjusted Contact Score, 2nd to Max Scherzer among qualifiers) than Kershaw’s but didn’t miss as many bats (18.2%). Like Kershaw, Gonsolin’s slider induced more grounders (45.9%) than is typical, and it muffled fly ball authority (51 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score).

Splitters are the most effective pitch in the game, so there’s nothing wrong with a “B+” pitch grade, Its whiff rate was average at 19.7% but only Alex Cobb among qualifiers posted a better pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Score than Gonsolin’s 75. It must be empahsized that as good as his slider and splitter were, he was very fortunate on contact with both pitches (30 Unadjusted vs. 61 Adjusted Contact Score for his slider, 33 vs. 75 for his splitter). Hitters tend to hit close to .700 on line drives – they hit .273 on liners vs. Gonsolin’s splitter. That’s just not real or repeatable.

Lastly, let’s talk about his four-seamer. As with Kershaw, it’s his weakest pitch. Its 94 Adjusted Contact Score was a standard deviation better, its 6.7% whiff rate a standard deviation worse than average. A comparable situation to Kershaw’s, though less extreme on both ends.

In addition, the innings bulk concerns are even greater with Gonsolin than Kershaw. He’s only exceeded 81 innings twice in his seven-year pro career, and his 130 1/3 innings in 2022 represented a career high. He’s simply not as good as his raw numbers suggest quality-wise, and the quantity he can be expected to provide simply can’t be trusted. Plus, he’s another pitcher whose four-seamer is his clear weakest link. Sure, Tony Gonsolin can provide value to the Dodgers as a mid-rotation starter in the near-to-intermediate term, but expecting anything resembling his raw 2022 numbers is unrealistic.

The Los Angeles Dodgers remain a very good team, but for the first time in years, I sense vulnerability. Dustin May has the ability to take a big step forward this season, and Julio Urias is as close to a sure thing staff ace as they come. The preponderance of the evidence would seem to suggest that the club will take a hit in the guts of its starting rotation this time around.