GBP/INR forecast: Descending triangle pattern forms

The GBP/INR price came under intense pressure after important forex news from the UK and India. It retreated to a low of 98.71, the lowest level since February 17. The GBP to INR pair has plunged by more than 2.5% from its highest level in February.

India GDP slowdown and Bailey statement

The GBP/INR exchange rate declined after the latest India GDP data. According to the statistics agency, the economy expanded by 4.4% in the fourth quarter as consumer consumption waned and inflation remained high. The economy slowed dramatically after it expanded in the previous three quarters of the year. 

India was the best-performing big economy in 2022. Unlike western countries, India did well by importing large quantities of crude oil from Russia. Some of this oil was refined and then sold in other western countries.

India has also benefited from the ongoing mass exodus of companies from China. Firms like Apple and Microsoft have shifted some of their businesses from China, as tensions with the west have risen. The government has continued promoting India as the destination of choice for most companies.

Recent data and news from India have been worrying. For example, inflation rebounded in January to 6.52%, which was higher than the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) upper band of 6%. This means that the RBI could deliver several more hikes going forward.

The other important GBP/INR news came from the UK, where Andrew Bailey delivered a statement. In it, he said that the central bank’s rate hikes were about to end. The BoE has been one of the most hawkish central banks in the world as it hiked rates by 400 basis points. Therefore, analysts expect that the bank will hike rates by about 0.25% in March.

GBP/INR forecast

GBP/INR chart by TradingView

The GBP to INR forex pair has formed a really good chart. On the 4H chart, we see that the pair has found substantial support at 98.70, where it has struggled to move below since February 6. It has formed a descending triangle pattern and moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. 

In price action analysis, a descending triangle pattern is one of the most accurate bearish patterns. Therefore, we can’t rule out a situation where the pair makes a bearish breakout. This view will be confirmed if it moves below the important support at 98.70. If it happens, by measuring the upper and lower side of the triangle, we can estimate that the pair will plunge below 97.91.