Joel Embiid Faces Another Uphill Battle In 2022-23 NBA MVP Race

For the third straight year, Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid is having an MVP-caliber season. He’s averaging a career-high 33.1 points on 53.7 percent shooting, 10.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.2 steals in 34.9 minutes per game, and his Sixers entered the All-Star break third in the Eastern Conference.

But for the third straight year, Embiid appears likely to come up short behind Denver Nuggets center NikolaNKLA
Jokic in MVP voting.

On Thursday, ESPN’s Tim Bontemps published the results of his second MVP straw poll, which gathers responses from 100 media members from across the country and internationally. Jokic was the runaway winner with 77 of the 100 first-place votes and 913 total points. Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo was second with 11 first-place votes and 552 total points, while Embiid was third with six first-place votes and 490 total points.

Oddsmakers vaulted Embiid up the MVP odds board when he outdueled Jokic with a dazzling 47-point, 18-rebound effort in a come-from-behind 126-119 win in late January. However, Jokic entered the All-Star break as a minus-250 to win MVP, per FanDuel Sportsbook, while Embiid (+600) and Antetokounmpo (+700) were the only other players within striking distance of him.

Embiid faces three major obstacles as he looks to narrow the gap between himself and Jokic: his own health, the Sixers’ brutal end-of-season schedule and Jokic’s dominance.

Embiid missed three games at the beginning of January with a left foot injury, and he’s been listed on the Sixers’ injury report with “left foot soreness” ever since. Following the Sixers’ 118-112 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night, he expressed uncertainty about whether he’d even be able to suit up in the All-Star Game on Sunday.

“I’m not sure,” Embiid said. “I’m not healthy. I haven’t been healthy for the past three weeks, or month. I was just trying to get to the All-Star break without missing games and stuff. But I feel like I’ve reached the point where I need to follow the doctor’s advice. … Back then he said I should have been sitting for two weeks, so we’ll see how the next few days go, and go from there.”

Embiid has already missed 12 games this season, while Jokic has missed only eight. If the Sixers look to buy him strategic rest over the next two months ahead of the playoffs, the gap in playing time—Jokic has already played 143 more minutes than Embiid this season—could serve as a tiebreaker of sorts.

Even if Embiid stays healthy and plays in most (or all) of the Sixers’ remaining games, their grueling rest-of-season schedule could be an impediment to his MVP candidacy.

The Sixers have by far the toughest remaining schedule of any team, according to Tankathon. Their opponents have a combined winning percentage of 54.0, while the Los Angeles Clippers are the next-closest team at 52.3 percent. Not only do they still have two games remaining against each of the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, but they also have two against the new-look Dallas Mavericks, one against the Kevin Durant-led Phoenix Suns and a road game against Jokic and the Nuggets in late March.

The Sixers come out of the All-Star break with home games against the Memphis Grizzlies and Celtics before a home-and-home against the Miami Heat and road games against the Mavericks and Bucks. Their schedule briefly softens up from there with road tilts against the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves and home dates against the Portland Trail Blazers and Washington Wizards, but their final 10 games are an absolute gauntlet. Of their 10 opponents in that stretch, the Toronto Raptors (28-31) and Atlanta Hawks (29-30) are the only ones currently below .500.

If seeding is locked in by that point of the season, there’s a chance that teams such as the Bucks (Apr. 2) and Celtics (Apr. 4) could begin resting players with an eye on the playoffs. But teams such as the Heat (Apr. 6), Hawks (Apr. 7) and Brooklyn Nets (Apr. 9) may be fighting to stay out of the play-in tournament, which means they’re more likely to be at full strength.

Meanwhile, Jokic’s Nuggets are 41-18 and have a five-game lead over the next-closest team in the West (the 35-22 Grizzlies). They also have the 11th-easiest remaining schedule with a combined opponent winning percentage of 49.6, so they might run away with the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. If the Sixers can’t wrestle a top-two seed away from the Celtics and/or Bucks, that’ll be a clear advantage on Jokic’s resume.

Narrative may be the biggest obstacle standing in Jokic’s way. He’s threatening to become only the fourth player in NBA history to win three straight MVP awards, joining Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell. All three of them had won at least one championship prior to their three-peat, while Jokic has only one appearance in the Western Conference Finals and zero trips to the NBA Finals (much less a championship) under his belt.

To join the legendary back-to-back-to-back MVP club, Jokic had to do something truly extraordinary this season. Becoming only the third player in NBA history—and the first center—to average a triple-double would certainly qualify.

Jokic is currently averaging 24.7 points on a career-high 63.2 percent shooting, 11.5 rebounds and a career-high 10.1 assists per game. No player 6’11” or taller has ever averaged more than 8.6 assists (Chamberlain in 1967-68) prior to this season. While Westbrook’s triple-double frenzy in recent years might have taken some shine off that accomplishment, it’s far different for a 6’11” center to pull off that feat compared to a 6’3″ point guard.

Jokic is already the best-passing big man in NBA history. He owns four of the top six and five of the top nine seasons in terms of assists per game from a player who’s 6’11” or taller, and he’s certain to add to that total this year. A historic passing season could set him apart from Embiid, Antetokounmpo and other deserving MVP candidates such as Celtics forward Jayson Tatum and Mavericks guard Luka Doncic.

Advanced metrics also once again paint a convincing case for Jokic. He leads the league in PER (31.8), win shares (11.3), box plus/minus (13.2) and value over replacement player (6.6), while Embiid is second, fifth, third and fourth in those metrics, respectively. Jokic also leads all players in Dunks and Threes’ estimated plus/minus (8.5), while Embiid is third (7.2).

Embiid isn’t likely to overtake Jokic in any of those all-in-one advanced metrics. He’ll have a clear edge over Jokic in scoring, but Jokic will have a huge advantage over him in both assists and field-goal percentage. Rebounds and steals may be roughly even, and Embiid will surpass Jokic in blocks, but Jokic should have more games and minutes played.

To leap over Jokic in the MVP race, Embiid will almost certainly have to finish as the league’s scoring leader for the second straight season while guiding the Sixers to a top-two seed. A strong finish against a brutal schedule could help swing some voters his way, but anything short of that will likely leave him as an MVP bridesmaid for the third straight season.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.