Should The U.S. Be Afraid Of A Chinese Balloon?

It sounds like a low-budget sci fi movie from the 1950s: a balloon that drifts into Montana from Canada turns out to be a high-tech surveillance craft being operated by China.

For guidance on what to make of all this, we turn to Gordon Chang, a noted author and distinguished senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute who has long tracked China’s leadership — and its impact. (For the full conversation with Chang, click here.)

Is this a weather balloon blown off course – or a “spy” balloon?

This is a spy balloon, according to Chang, as well as numerous officials at the Pentagon and in the Administration. But Chang thinks of it more as a “trial” balloon that’s intended to test how Americans react to this sort of blatant incursion of its airspace. At 60,000-feet above Montana, odds are low that Chinese thought we would not see it, he argues, and we live in a time when satellites can glean a lot of information that render ‘balloons’ less necessary.

What does this say about the mindset of Chinese leadership?

That, for Chang, is the important question. He points to a multitude of key signals coming out of Beijing recently that indicate President Xi Jinping and his cadres are preparing for war — from shifting production to changing laws that allow for an easier wartime footing. (If so, many feel the first stop would be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan)

Why is this happening now?

To start, there’s the Covid-19 pandemic, which devastated the economy with Xi’s zero-Covid policy. Add in the specter of political unrest, which showed itself in the form of widespread protests prior to the lifting of Covid restrictions in December, and a growing desire in Beijing to assert clear dominance in the region. The fact that the U.S. is hosting APEC this year doesn’t hurt, either, and the mutual desire of U.S. and Chinese businesses to diversify way from partnerships could also be a factor in fostering an atmosphere that’s less friendly.

What are the implications for the Biden Administration at home?

Lawmakers are already berating the President for what they perceive to be a weak reaction to this violation of U.S. airspace, which was made public on Thursday night. While government officials are tracking the balloon and say that their primary goal is to avoid casualties, Chang argues that the balloon could have been brought down over a number of remote areas in the Western United States or Canada.