Bundesliga Crisis Has Shades Of 1978

Bayern Munich has continued its poor run form since the World Cup break. On Saturday, the Rekordmeister gave away a 1-0 lead against Frankfurt and was ultimately lucky to walk away with a point. The 1-1 draw was the third in a row and something they had not done since the 1978/79 season when the club finished fourth behind Hamburger SV, Kaiserslautern, and VfB Stuttgart.

Although unlikely, a fourth-place finish is not beyond the realm of possibility this season. The Bundesliga table is tight at the top, with just five points separating first-placed Bayern and sixth-place Frankfurt.

In that pack of six teams, second-placed Union Berlin, third-placed RB Leipzig and fourth-placed Dortmund, and, of course, Frankfurt have already taken points off the Rekordmeister this season. Those results give hope to neutral Bundesliga followers that, for the first time in ten years, someone other than Bayern could win the title this season.

“I’d rather we go through a difficult phase now than at the end of the season,” Bayern Munich CEO Oliver Kahn said to kicker reporter Georg Holzner after the game. “But of course, there’s already a lot at stake.” The Bayern boss also added that Bayern is now under pressure to improve in their upcoming DFB Pokal game against Mainz.

Another bad result against Mainz on Wednesday would certainly exasperate the crisis at the Rekordmeister, even if the decision-makers try to down-talk the problems. “We definitely have to get better results, but crisis is a very hard word,” Julian Nagelsmann said after the Frankfurt game to the Aktuelle Sportstudio. “For actual crises, you can watch the German news program ‘Heute Journal. We want to play better, but talking about a crisis is too far.”

Nagelsmann and Kahn are undoubtedly right; there are more significant problems than Bayern’s results crisis in Germany. But the truth is also that there are some systemic issues at the club. Bayern’s lack of a true no.9, defensive issues caused by the World Cup injuries to Lucas Hernández and Manuel Neuer’s skiing accident, and the decline of form by key players like Thomas Müller are hard to fix this winter.

Sporting director Hasan Salihamidzic, in fact, has stressed that Bayern Munich will not make any new signings from now until Tuesday evening when the Bundesliga transfer window closes. Instead, Kahn and Salihamidzic believe the coaching staff needs to find solution with the squad at hand.

Furthermore, Bayern invested big in the summer spending €145.5 million ($157.69 million) on new players. Some of those new players, however, are part of the problem. Sadio Mané, who was a star at Liverpool, has struggled with fitness, in general, and life in the Bundesliga when not injured. The same is true for Matthijs de Ligt, who was signed in a big deal from Juventus. Super talents Mathys Tel and Ryan Gravenberch simply need more time.

Then on top of everything, the injury to Neuer and the World Cup fatigue of key players has created an opening for the opposition. An opposition that, on balance, has also gotten better.

Even Dortmund, with their frequent rotation of coaches and insistence on selling their biggest stars, remains in contention. The real threat this season, however, appears from the likes of RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt, coached by Marco Rose and Oliver Glasner, respectively.

Those two coaches might be the best in Germany at the moment. Glasner also knows how to win titles, having guided Frankfurt to a Europa League triumph last season. In Randal Kolo Muani, the Eagles have one of the most exciting strikers in European football.

Leipzig, in the meantime, has recently taken points off Bayern and still plays the Rekordmeister a second time. Their recent positive result came without their top striker Christopher Nkunku. Then there are dark horses Freiburg and Union Berlin; Bayern still has to play both of those teams.

History suggests Bayern will still win the title at the end of the season, especially if they get knocked out early by Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League. But there is also a real weakness in the squad at the moment that will not be fixed on deadline day on Tuesday, and unlike most seasons, the challenge is coming not from one but multiple clubs. All that, in theory, is a recipe for one of the most exciting title races in recent history.

Manuel Veth is the host of the Bundesliga Gegenpressing Podcast and the Area Manager USA at Transfermarkt. He has also been published in the Guardian, Newsweek, Howler, Pro Soccer USA, and several other outlets. Follow him on Twitter: @ManuelVeth