Minnesota Twins Win The Pablo Lopez/Luis Arraez Deal

2022 was one frustrating season for the Minnesota Twins. They got off to a fantastic start, and in the eminently winnable AL Central appeared to be well on their way to securing a playoff berth. In the second half, things went south as seemingly the entire team got hurt, and the Cleveland Guardians wound up winning the division going away. The Twins’ collapse was so complete that they weren’t even within hailing distance of any of the league’s multiple wild card berths.

While the on-field results weren’t great, many of the club’s big-picture moves are still looking good with the benefit of hindsight. Righthanded starter Joe Ryan, acquired from the Rays in the Nelson Cruz deal, looks like a rotation anchor. Their decision to cut bait on former ace Jose Berrios at the 2021 trading deadline appears astute, as he has slid backward since joining the Blue Jays. They got a solid year out of Gio Urshela in exchange for Josh Donaldson’s bloated contract, affording them much-needed additional financial flexibility. They paid an affordable prospect cost (Chase Petty) for solid starter Sonny Gray. In an environment where exactly no one is trading established starting pitching, the Twins have shown a knack for getting the right guys at affordable prices.

Which brings us to last week’s blockbuster that sent reigning AL batting champ Luis Arraez to the Marlins for righthanded starter Pablo Lopez plus a pair of prospects, SS Jose Salas and CF Byron Chourio.

While Arraez is an old-school type player who is a personal favorite of mine, and it isn’t every day that a batting title holder gets dealt, I totally get this deal from the Twins’ perspective.

Arraez is actually a guy that I’ve heralded as a potential batting champ over the years. When you, A) never strike out, and B) hit a bunch of line drives, .300 batting averages can and even should happen. If you can hit .300, you can win a batting title if you get enough breaks. Arraez and current NL champ Jeff McNeil are living proof of this.

Arraez’ 25.8% liner rate in 2022 is actually his WORST over the last four seasons, while his 7.1% K rate was his best. Both marks were over two full standard deviations better than the league average.

So why on earth am I not going wild about the Marlins’ end of this deal? Well, Arraez does not hit the ball particularly hard. Over his career, his overall average exit speed consistently has sat squarely in the league average range, and his 2022 average grounder exit speed (87.6 mph) is his only seasonal authority mark in any batted ball type that has been materially above average.

Most concerning is the combination of his relatively weak fly ball authority (39 Relative Fly Ball Contact Score in 2022) and the increasing number of fly balls he is hitting (31.8% fly ball rate in 2022). Plus, Arraez was quite fortunate on the liners he hit last season, batting .712 AVG-.797 SLG on them despite underlying metrics that support a much lower .652 AVG-.788 SLG mark.

Based on the exit speed/launch angle mix of all of his batted balls, Arraez “should have” hit .275-.336-.393 for a decent 110 “Tru” Production+, but that’s nowhere near batting title territory. And there aren’t a lot of extras with Arraez – while he’s a versatile defender, he’s not a particularly good one. He settled in as the Twins’ primary 1B last season, but will play 2B in Miami.

And then there’s Lopez. He has two years of team control remaining, one less than Arraez. He’ll play this season at age 27, one year older than Arraez. But let’s keep this simple.

There were all of 45 ERA-qualifying starting pitchers in 2022, and Lopez was one of them. Virtually all of these guys are mega-valuable, and almost none of them are even close to being available on the trade market. 33 of those 45 starters had better than league average “Tru” ERA-. Among the other 12 are some pretty valuable pitchers, like the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert and Guardians’ Cal Quantrill.

While Lopez didn’t rank all that highly within the remaining 33, he did rank higher than Jameson Taillon, who just pulled down a four-year, $68M deal from the Cubs in free agency, and fractionally behind the likes of Corey Kluber, Martin Perez, Shane Bieber, Robbie Ray and Jose Quintana.

Lopez is younger than all of those guys, with Bieber the only one who is close, just one year older. And the trend of Lopez’ career is clearly pointed upward.

And while Lopez might lack overwhelming strengths (though his changeup is pretty darned good), he is absolutely devoid of weaknesses. His 2022 K rate was in the league average range, his BB rate was over a half standard deviation better. His overall average exit speed allowed of 87.7 mph was squarely in the league average range, and when you break it down by batted ball type, only his average liner exit speed (over a half standard deviation better at 91.4 mph) ventures out of the league average range. His overall Unadjusted and Adjusted Contact Scores? Both smack at a league average 100. His ERA- and FIP-? Just better than average at 95, and his “Tru” ERA- is a touch better at 92.

So no big deal, league average starter, right? Well those league average numbers have all those dominant relievers’ numbers included in them. Do not scoff at a “league average” starter. Lopez is a Top 30 MLB starter and trending up. Those guys simply aren’t traded often.

Oh, and who else among that group of 33 above-average, ERA-qualfying pitchers didn’t have a single below average K/BB or contact management trait? 13 guys named Justin Verlander, Shohei Ohtani, Shane McClanahan, Alek Manoah, Jordan Montgomery, Martin Perez, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Sandy Alcantata, Julio Urias, Joe Musgrove, Chris Bassitt and Jose Quintana. A combination of massive upsides and really high floors.

So I’d be happy with Lopez for Arraez straight up if I were a Twins’ fan. But I get prospects too? Salas is hyped by some as an elite prospect, and I’m not on board with that. He does have upside, however, though he has a bunch to prove at higher levels. He has been on my list of Top Minor League Prospects in both 2021 and 2022, peaking at #113 this season. Chourio (no relation to the Brewers’ mega-prospect Jackson) is even farther away from the majors, a teenager who has yet to play full-season ball. He isn’t even eligible for my minor league list yet, but clearly has the tools to make some noise. A solid lottery ticket.

So good job, Twins. I see what you’re trying to do, hitting-poor Marlins, but this deal was simply not a wise use of your resources. Do not sleep on Pablo Lopez.