New York Yankees Need More Offense To Close The Gap With The Houston Astros

The New York Yankees currently have an estimated $271M payroll, an increase of $22M from last season.

Fangraphs.com lists the Yankees payroll well above the second threshold of the MLB Luxury Tax levels.

The MLB Basic Agreement includes four thresholds of MLB Luxury Tax penalties.

The Luxury Tax thresholds are as follows:

$233M=first level

$253M=second level

$272M=third level

$293M=fourth level

Many in MLB have labeled the Luxury Tax “The Cohen Tax.” That nickname references New York Mets owner Steve Cohen, who has not been shy about adding substantially to the Mets payroll since he assumed ownership of the Mets.

While the Yankees are poised to crawl deeply into the 2023 MLB Luxury Tax penalty box, the Mets have, indeed, taken a very deep dive into the penalty pool.

The Mets and Mr. Cohen are reported by fangraphs.com to have an estimated $376M payroll for next season-a whopping $83M over the highest threshold of the Luxury Tax system.

The Oakland Athletics have a projected payroll of $54M, or $29M below the amount by which the Mets will exceed the highest level of the MLB tax.

Yankees Roster Additions:

The Yankees finished last season with a record of 99-63, 7 games better than the second place Toronto Blue Jays.

The Yankees defeated the Cleveland Guardians, 3-2 in the postseason American League Division Series. However, they couldn’t get past the eventual World Champion Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series, losing 4-0 to the Astros.

Since the end of the season, the Astros have replaced first baseman Yuli Gurriel Jr. with free agent All Star first baseman Jose Abreu.

Abreu, 35, provides the Astros with an additional RBI threat in the middle of their batting order.

Abreu, along with hitters like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker provide the World Champion Astros with a lethal lineup of consequential hitters.

The Astros also signed outfielder Michael Brantley, a very solid line drive hitter, to a new contract. Battling injuries, Brantley missed time last season with the Astros.

Can the Yankees catch the Astros? Does the Yankees spending close the gap between themselves and Houston?

To this scout, they have not improved their offense enough to beat the Astros.

The Yankees signed Aaron Judge to a 9-year, $360M contract. Judge became a free agent after this past season. He entertained offers from other clubs, and some analysts felt the San Francisco Giants could sign Judge away from the Yankees. It was not to be.

With the Judge signing leading their offseason, the Yankees continued to spend. Their biggest additional move was signing left-handed free agent starter Carlos Rodon to a 6-year, $162M contract.

The Yankees also signed free agent reliever Tommy Kahnle to a two-year, $11.5M contract.

To date, the difference between the 2022 Yankees and the 2023 edition includes only Rodon and Kahnle.

Adding Rodon considerably upgrades the Yankees rotation.

If healthy, Rodon can clearly retain his reputation as one of the finest pitchers in the game.

But can Rodon stay healthy?

Rodon has a history of a sprained left wrist, left biceps bursitis, arthroscopic shoulder surgery in 2017, Tommy John surgery in 2019, and left shoulder soreness in 2020.

To his credit, Rodon started 24 games for the Chicago White Sox in 2021, when he made his first American League All Star Team.

A National League All Star last year, Rodon stayed healthy and started 31 games for the Giants.

A Yankees rotation that includes right-hander Gerrit Cole, lefty Carlos Rodon, right-hander Luis Severino, lefty Nestor Cortes and right-hander Frankie Montas can be among the best in baseball.

By adding Rodon, this scout feels the Yankees new starting five is better than the Astros rotation.

The Astros lost American League Cy Young Award Winner Justin Verlander as a free agent to the New York Mets. Of course, that’s a huge loss.

The Astros potential rotation will probably include left-hander Framber Valdez, and right-handers Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy.

New York Yankees Offense:

The Yankees were good enough to win those 99 games last year with solid pitching and solid hitting.

The Yankees were energized by the American League record 62 home runs hit by Aaron Judge.

The Yankees were the beneficiary of 32 home runs from first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who they also retained with a 2-year, free agent contract worth $40M.

Giancarlo Stanton, who has five more years and a club option on a $325M contract, chipped in another 31 home runs.

Judge, Rizzo and Stanton will once again be hitting together in the Yankees lineup. And they will once again bring fear to opposing pitchers.

However, to date, the Yankees front office hasn’t added anyone else to their offensive roster.

It isn’t likely Judge can equal his amazing home run record. And what if the other sluggers struggle? Does the Yankees offense have enough depth?

The Astros upgraded their offense at first base by adding Abreu.

As of this writing, to this observer, it appears the Astros have more depth in their lineup than the Yankees. The net result? The Yankees have offensive issues that should be addressed.

RosterResource.com lists the potential 2023 Yankees starting lineup as follows:

Gleyber Torres-2B

Aaron Judge-RF

Anthony Rizzo-1B

Giancarlo Stanton-DH

Josh Donaldson-3B

Oswaldo Cabrera-LF

Harrison Bader-CF

Oswald Peraza-SS

Jose Trevino-C

How much does third baseman Josh Donaldson have left in his tank? Donaldson turned 37 in December. He hit .222 for the Yankees in 546 plate appearances. He hit 15 homers, down from the 26 he hit the year before with the Minnesota Twins. He drove in 54 runs, which was 20 fewer than 2021 with Minnesota.

Is switch-hitting Oswaldo Cabrera, 23, the answer in left field? A rookie last year, Cabrera hit six homers, drove in 19 and scored 21 runs in his 171 plate appearances. His final hitting stats were .247/.312/.429/.740. He certainly shows promise, but does he offer enough offense?

Is there a problem at shortstop? RosterResource.com lists exciting rookie Oswald Peraza as the starting shortstop. He appeared in 18 games for the Yankees last year. However, at the age of 22, it may be very tough for Peraza to live up to his very favorable projections this early in his career.

It won’t be long until the Yankees can pair Peraza at shortstop with highly regarded prospect Anthony Volpe at second base. But for this scout, both could benefit from more time in development.

To his credit, center fielder Harrison Bader may be on an upward offensive trajectory. He hit five homers in the postseason, played tremendous defense, and played with vigor as a part of the starting Yankees lineup. Can the power Bader showed continue in the coming season?

At this point, it looks like usually reliable, but declining DJ LeMahieu will have to fight for a starting role. But he is a valuable, and versatile component of the roster.

Conclusions:

Even though their projected 2023 payroll will hit $271M, have the Yankees done enough in the offseason to catch the Houston Astros?

The Yankees have dedicated financial resources to bringing back sluggers Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo. They improved their pitching depth with the additions of free agent pitchers Carlos Rodon and reliever Tommy Kahnle.

In essence, if there are no other additions to the Yankees roster, they will begin the new season with the same team-with the exceptions of pitchers Rodon and Kahnle.

It may not be enough to catch the World Champion Houston Astros.