OKC Thunder Facing Potential Fork In Road Entering New Year

As the Oklahoma City Thunder enter their New Year’s Eve matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, the team has a 15-20 record.

While at the surface this doesn’t seem great, it’s actually quite a bit better than expected for Oklahoma City. Entering the season, the Thunder were projected 23.5 wins in the 2022-23 campaign. They’re currently on pace for a 35-47 record.

Based on last season’s results, a 35-win campaign would have earned the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference and a spot in the play-in tournament. While there’s no guarantee that would be the case once again this season, it does mean that the Thunder have taken a huge step forward. They’re no longer a bottom team that lacks competitiveness on a night-to-night basis.

With that in mind, there’s a blatant weakness on this team. Even before the season, Oklahoma City lacked frontcourt depth following the injury to Chet Holmgren. Now, things are worse as Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Ousmane Dieng are all out for the foreseeable future.

These are three of the tallest players on the roster, which is a huge blow. Pokusevski was the only 7-footer on the team entering the season and is out for at least six weeks.

As such, guys like Mike Muscala and Jaylin Williams will have to play significant minutes, and neither of which are ideal candidates to be primary centers for the majority of a game.

This puts the Thunder at a bit of a fork in the road. With roughly six weeks until the trade deadline, decisions will need to be made.

Will Oklahoma City opt to ride out the depleted roster, acquire a big to fill the need, or end up being sellers?

The next few weeks will likely dictate which path they take. Depending on what Oklahoma City’s record is at the end of January, the decision might be much easier to make.

If the Thunder struggle over the next month with the lack of size and fall in the standings, perhaps it makes sense to stay put or even be sellers at the deadline. If the play-in appears to be out of reach, pivoting to internal roster development and a shot at a top pick in the 2023 NBA Draft would make sense.

On the flip side, if Oklahoma City continues winning at this rate and is still in the play-in picture, perhaps being buyers and adding a legitimate center is the best path to take.

Regardless, the way other teams play will also factor into these decisions as standings are relative. As of today, here’s how the bottom of the Western Conference looks.

• 9. Utah Jazz: 19-18
• 10. Golden State Warriors: 18-18
• 11. Minnesota Timberwolves: 16-19
• 12. Oklahoma City Thunder: 15-20
• 13. Los Angeles Lakers: 14-21
• 14. San Antonio Spurs: 12-23
• 15. Houston Rockets: 10-25

The Thunder are currently within 2.5 games of the play-in, but also only 5.0 games ahead of the worst team in the West. With over half of the season remaining, a lot will happen. However, the next month will ultimately decide how the end of the season looks for Oklahoma City.

The trade deadline will take place on Feb. 9, when the Thunder will likely have to make a decision.