Red Flags Piling Up For Milwaukee Bucks On Road Trip

For the first time under Mike Budenholzer, the Milwaukee Bucks may have more questions than answers.

The Bucks have been exposed over the last two weeks. They’ve lost three straight games entering Wednesday’s contest against the Chicago Bulls—their final of a five-game road trip that has included stops in New Orleans, Cleveland, Brooklyn and Boston. Throw in an embarrassing 41-point loss at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies the week before and the red flags are piling up.

Milwaukee has trailed by double-digits entering the fourth quarter in each of their four losses dating back to the Grizzlies’ game on December 15th. Their elite defense, which ranked number one for most of the season, has plummeted to number five over that span. Their offense has continued their season-long struggles. Joe Ingles looks washed following a down 2021-22 campaign that ended prematurely with an ACL tear. Khris Middleton continues to miss time with knee soreness. Where should we begin?

Let’s start with games that have been played since December 15th. Milwaukee ranks 29th in point differential, 29th in offensive rating and 30th in defensive rating, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Their halfcourt offense continues to be abysmal. When the game slows down, Milwaukee goes into isolation mode with four guys standing around the perimeter watching the ball-handler (usually Giannis Antetokounmpo) go to work. If there’s any movement at all, it’s someone running to the top of the key to set a ball-screen. They’ve improved their ball movement this season, but still rank in the bottom half of passes made and assists per game.

Antetokounmpo’s usage continues to be sky-high. He ranks third in the NBA in usage rate behind only Luka Doncic and Ja Morant. That’s typically fine, but he’s been working on his pull-up and in between game this season—two aspects that have brought his efficiency down to a level not seen since his pre-MVP days.

Teams are doubling him more than ever before, too. And Milwaukee can’t make them play. They rank 19th in three-point percentage with players like Wesley Matthews (32.7 percent), Pat Connaughton (32.6 percent), George Hill (31.7 percent), Bobby Portis (29.8 percent) and Joe Ingles (17.6 percent) struggling to knock down outside shots.

Jrue Holiday has his hands full with defending the opponent’s best offensive player. He’s spent more time on wings and forwards this season, further sucking his energy to be the Bucks’ second scorer. His shooting percentages have dropped nearly across the board to the lowest since he landed in Milwaukee in 2020.

Without Middleton, there isn’t a reliable third scorer. Brook Lopez and Portis are trying their best, but haven’t been able to perfectly replace the production. Others have waxed and waned.

The defense has been a strength all season and has faltered recently against better teams. To be sure, opponents are making tough shots, but Milwaukee hasn’t been their typical stout selves.

The three-point defense has been particularly concerning. After revamping their help defense in the offseason to focus on taking away threes, Milwaukee has reverted to their old ways. Since December 15th, they rank 19th in the NBA in percentage of opponent’s shots which are threes. They were near the top of the NBA to begin the season.

Defense will be their calling card in the postseason once again. It’s how they’ve survived uneven offensive play since Budenholzer’s arrival.

All of this is based on a small sample size, but it’s important information for Milwaukee to digest. They’ve played some of the better teams in the last two weeks and have been taken to the woodshed. If they don’t adjust their long-term plan, they may see similar results in April, May or June.

Budenholzer is the master at playing the long game. Everything he does during the regular season aims to improve his players and get them in peak condition for the playoffs. Rest assured, he and his staff are taking note of the red flags and creating a plan to address them.