For 1st Time Since 2014, U.S. Toy Imports Dip Below $2 Billion

For the first time this century, children’s toy imports did not peak in October, instead falling below $2 billion in an October for the first time since 2014.

Was it recession fears going into the Christmas shipping and shopping season? Supply-chain issues?

Rather than a cautious retail community concerned about a U.S. recession, it appears the concern was more related to supply chain issues, when looking at the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which runs through October.

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Those concerns run from the whac-a-mole Covid-19 lockdowns in China’s port cities to fears in the United States of labor strikes at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and a nationwide rail strike.

The vast majority of these toys come from China (80%) and enter the United States in the twin seaports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (just under 42%), according to October YTD data.

The two biggest months this year — and two of the three biggest this century — were in August ($2.39 billion) and September ($2.35 billion). That might suggest supply-chain concerns.

It’s also possible the dip in October could represent reticence that developed after September orders were placed.

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This is what makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to determine what to do about monetary policy as it tries to thwart inflation without sending the economy into a recession.

The October total was $1.94 billion, still the 14th busiest month on record for children’s toy imports but behind the month of October in 2015 through 2021.

Nine of the 15 busiest months on record for toy imports occurred in October.

Because of the record-breaking August total and the strong showing in September, U.S. imports in the primary toy category are in record territory in 2022, up 23.13% over the same 10 months of 2021, according to he data. Overall U.S. imports are up far less, 15.47%.

Some of that gain can almost certainly be attributed to inflation, though toys change from year to year, making comparisons challenging. By tonnage, imports are up a somewhat more modest 14.24%. While the tonnage is not up as much as the value, the increase nevertheless might also point more to supply-chain worries than recession fears.

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Reflecting some of the fears regarding labor strife on the West Coast, the Port of Savannah registered a 57.5% gain in children’s toy imports in October, when compared to last October. That was enough to push it ahead of the Port of Long Beach, which had ranked second, and leave it trailing only the Port of Los Angeles.

Imports credited to Long Beach increased 14.27%, below the 23.13% for all children’s toy imports. Imports credited to the Port of Long Angeles increased 22.83%, slightly below the national average.

Imports from China increased 29.88% while those from Vietnam increased 56.54%. Imports from Mexico and Taiwan, the third- and fifth-ranked U.S. sources, grew more slowly, up 6.88% and 9.17%, respectively.

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