December Tropical Threat? Forecasters Watching Atlantic System That Could Bring Rare Storm

Topline

A large area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic Ocean could develop into a rare December named storm this week, according to the National Hurricane Center, days after the 2022 hurricane season officially ended.

There may be one more Atlantic named storm in store for 2022 even though hurricane season is … [+] officially over.

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Key Facts

Conditions appear favorable for the system—located over open waters 750 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands—to “acquire some subtropical characteristics while it drifts northeastward during the next few days,” forecasters said, giving it a 40% chance of forming by the end of the week.

Subtropical storms are disturbances carrying characteristics of both tropical storms and nontropical systems, but they still fall under the same “named storm” umbrella as tropical storms, effectively making them congruent for record-keeping purposes.

The window for any development should end Thursday night, when it’s expected to move over cooler waters, according to the National Hurricane Center.

If a subtropical storm forms, it would be the 15th in the Atlantic basin this year, formally making the 2022 season above average (14 named storms is considered typical).

What To Watch For

The system is not expected to pose a significant threat to land, regardless of development. Owen is the next name on the list for 2022.

Surprising Fact

The most recent Atlantic named storm tracked during the month of December was Tropical Storm Olga, which lasted from December 11 to December 13, 2007. An analysis of the 2013 season found there was an unnamed system in December of that year that should have been classified as a subtropical storm.

Key Background

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was unusual in several ways, especially for having a historically long stretch in the late summer where no storms formed, leaving August—a month notorious for destructive hurricanes—without as much as a tropical depression. Activity ramped up in the fall, however, and lasted even into November. Two hurricanes formed within hours of each other on November 2, a rarity for any point in the season but especially in November. The 14 named storms recorded during 2022 significantly undershot experts’ expectations heading into hurricane season, which called for one of the most active years in history.

Tangent

Hurricane Ian was by far the costliest storm of 2022, after slamming into southwest Florida in September as a high-end Category 4. A September report from Zurich-based insurance firm Swiss Re estimated the hurricane caused up to $65 billion worth of insured damages—the second most ever for a hurricane after Hurricane Katrina of 2005.