Bitcoin’s price back to $17,000

After collapsing in the first decade of November, Bitcoin’s price is now back around the $17,000 mark. 

Truth be told, this threshold had already been crossed twice since the yearly low peak on 10 November, but both between 10 and 11 November and between 14 and 15 in the following days it had returned below this figure. 

The current level is still below the previous annual minimum peak of $17,500 touched in June, which suggests that the current phase of difficulty cannot yet be said to be over. 

Bitcoin price: the trend of 2022

Although Bitcoin’s price had already started to fall since late December 2021, until early May it had remained substantially above $35,000, which is 49% lower than the $69,000 all-time high of November 2021. 

However, with the implosion of the Terra/Luna ecosystem, the price collapsed below $30,000, then fell again in June to below $20,000 due to the failure of Celsius, Voyager and 3AC. 

It had since lateralized around $20,000 until early November, when there was the new collapse due to the FTX bankruptcy. 

Although from 5 to 9 November it lost 27% of its value in just four days, the yearly low of $15,500 touched on 10 November was only 11% lower than the June low, which was instead 50% lower than the early May price. 

Thus from January to early May it lost 49%, followed by another 50% from about mid-May to mid-June. In contrast, the subsequent collapse in November lowered the annual low point by only 11%. 

The current correction

The fact that it has now rebounded to $17,000 is hardly surprising, and cannot be considered a sufficient sign of good health. 

Instead, the fact that the November crash lowered the annual minimum peak by only 11%, after two crashes of about 50% each, suggests that the latest crash was actually not as bad as the previous ones. 

Then again, the previous two really came like lightning bolts, leaving everyone surprised. Instead, the FTX collapse in November, however unforeseen, came at a time of already clear distress, hence with a level of fear already so high that it could not increase much. 

Indeed, in early May the Fear & Greed Index was in negative, but not extreme, territory, while in mid-May it plunged toward lows. The lowest peak of this index was reached just after mid-June, while after the FTX failure it was basically at the levels of early May. 

So the maximum fear in the Bitcoin market this year occurred between May and June, and the current one is just the long tail of what has happened so far this year, in addition of course to the problem caused by FTX. 

Traditional markets

In contrast, it is very curious that, for example, the Nasdaq bear market of 2022 seems to have been over for almost two months now. 

As a matter of fact, the Nasdaq’s lowest annual peak for now was in mid-October, and it has already recovered nearly 15% since then. 

While a new bullrun has by no means begun, it seems that the big fears in the traditional markets at this time have been left behind. This is by no means a guarantee that the trend will be reversed, but coupled with the fact that the inflation problem in the US has stopped growing, it may at least bode well. 

The Fed chairman himself announced yesterday that it is possible that the US central bank’s monetary policy in December will become a little less restrictive, while remaining so. 

In this climate it is possible that, should no other problems similar to the FTX failure occur, the crypto market may also have bottomed out in the first decade of November. 

In this regard, it cannot be ruled out that the small rebound in Bitcoin’s price these days could be followed by other rebounds that could bring it back to the $20,000 area, that is, where it has been lateralizing for nearly five months since the collapse in the first half of June. 

Moreover, Asian markets are also recovering, with the Hang Seng Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange already having recovered 27% in just over a month. 

Perhaps the general decline of 2022 came to an end between October and November, and this could be good for crypto markets as well. However, in the event that other dramatic and unforeseen events occur, there is nothing to detract from the fact that prices could fall again.