Breaking Down The Yankees’ Reported Offer To Aaron Judge

After several weeks of relative inactivity in the MLB free agency, the kingpin of a majority of the moves to follow may finally have seen a potential sign of momentum.

According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, “the New York Yankees have an offer on the table to Judge “’in the neighborhood’ of a contract for eight years and $300 million, which would make him the highest-paid position player in MLB history based on average annual value.”

But what would this look like for the Yankees?

For anyone unaware of the biggest storyline of the 2022 MLB season, New York and Judge’s camp could not agree on an extension before the year, and Judge wanted zero contract discussion to occur after Opening Day, thus making this a contract year for #99.

And in the process, Judge went on to win the MVP nearly unanimously, set the American League single-season home run record with 62 bombs, lead the league in OBP (.425) and slugging percentage (.686) and at points of the year carry the Yankees offense to the second-best regular season record in the AL.

In short, he bet on himself and won the pot.

According to Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman, New York offered Judge a seven-year, $230.5 million deal, which is an AAV of $30.5. As of today, this would be the 15th-highest amount in MLB.

Although Judge did not comment on the reason for passing on this deal, whether it has to do with the AAV or amount of years, it is clear that Judge thinks he can make more either from the Yankees by the end of the year or in free agency.

But the one question that was wondered was if they would be willing to sign another long-term deal that keeps a player on the payroll into their late 30’s?

Currently, the Yankees have five played locked up until at least their age 35 season. 4 of those 5 are retained to age 37 or longer. If 30-year old Judge’s concern was the length of the deal being longer than 7-years, then he will be put into this grouping.

be willing to sign another long-term deal that keeps a player on the payroll into their late 30’s?

Currently, the Yankees have five played locked up until at least their age 35 season. 4 of those 5 are retained to age 37 or longer. If 30-year old Judge’s concern was the length of the deal being longer than 7-years, then he will be put into this grouping.

Of this group however (Cole, Stanton, Hicks, LeMahieu, Donaldson) Judge has the best WAR rate per year (8.2 per 162 games). For reference, the best single-season WAR total from a position player this decade was Barry Bonds in 2001, when he produced 11.9 WAR in his 73 home run, 177 walk season.

So, according to Ben Clemens of Fangraph’s, the average rate of money per WAR of 2+ WAR players is $8.5 million.

The rumored AAV of $35.5 million would not reach the heights of this total, but it would make him the highest paid position player in the game, which may be enough in itself.

Simply put, Hal Steinbrenner did not allow San Francisco, Los Angeles or other potential suitors to sway him before he reportedly showcased his potential paycheck, which could go a long way in making him the next captain of the Yankees.