Predicting Where Aaron Judge, Other Top Free Agent Hitters, Land

The New York Yankees made the first major free agent move of the offseason when they re-signed a power hitter.

Yet Aaron Judge remains on the open market.

The Yankees locked first baseman Anthony Rizzo into a two-year, $40-million contract earlier this week. Owner Hal Steinbrenner says his team very much wants to bring back Judge, who is expected to win the American League Most Valuable Player award Thursday night.

Steinbrenner told reporters he has talked with Judge directly multiple times since the Yankees were eliminated by the eventual World Series champion Houston Astros in the AL Championship Series.

Judge tops the list of top free agent hitters heavy with shortstops – much like last winter’s market.

Here is a look at the top five hitters available with educated guesses on where they will sign and for how much money.

AARON JUDGE

Judge essentially bet on himself when he turned down a seven-year, $213-million contract offer from the Yankees just before the start of the past season. It looks like a wager that is going to pay off big for the 30-year-old outfielder.

Judge has almost certainly set himself up for a contract of more than $300 million following a monster platform season. He set the AL home run record with 62 while batting .311/.425/.686.

Judge also topped the league with 133 runs scored, 131 RBIs and 111 walks in addition to on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

The Yankees obviously miscalculated Judge’s worth back in April and the San Francisco Giants are said to desperately want to add the northern California native. Yet it is hard to imagine a storied franchise that hasn’t been to the World Series since 2009 letting their best player get away.

Prediction: Yankees for eight years and $320 million

CARLOS CORREA

Correa was one of four premier shortstops on last offseason’s market along with Javier Baez, Corey Seager and Trevor Story. While the other three landed contracts of at least six years, Correa settled for a three-year, $105.3-million deal with the Minnesota Twins that included opt-out clauses following each of the first two seasons.

As expected, Correa walked away from a guaranteed $70.2 million combined in 2023-24 and opted out. It seems certain agent Scott Boras will land his client a long-term deal this time around.

Correa, 28, would like to surpass the $341 million fellow Puerto Rican shortstop Francisco Lindor got from the New York Mets. That might be hard to attain but the Los Angeles Dodgers, fresh off a tremendously disappointing loss to the San Diego Padres in a National League Division Series, seem ready to soothe those wounds by making a big expenditure.

Prediction: Dodgers for eight years and $297 million

TREA TURNER

While Correa is generally considered the top free agent shortstop, some baseball people will argue Trea Turner is a better player.

Turner, 29, has developed a good bit of power as he has gotten older and is one the most disruptive baserunners in the game. While not a Gold Glover, his defense is solid at shortstop and would play up if moved to second base.

It makes tons of sense for the Dodgers to re-sign him but there is persistent chatter that the Florida native wants to play on the East Coast. After losing to the Astros in the World Series and not exercising shortstop Jean Segura’s contract option for next season, the Philadelphia Phillies are a logical fit.

Prediction: Phillies for eight years, $272 million

XANDER BOGAERTS

The longtime Boston Red Sox shortstop opted out of the last three years and $60 million of his six-year, $120-millon contract. He has been a mainstay since making his major league debut late in the 2013 season and helping the Red Sox win the World Series that year.

Many analysts have connected the dots and linked Bogaerts to the Phillies, where president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski once held the same job with the Red Sox.

However, the Red Sox are aggressively trying to re-sign Bogaerts. The feeling in baseball circles is Boston is ready to top any offer the 30-year-old receives.

Prediction: Red Sox for seven years and $196 million

DANSBY SWANSON

Swanson is seemingly the only key player the Atlanta Braves did not sign to a long-term contract in recent years. Now the shortstop is a free agent, and perhaps he will follow former teammate Freddie Freeman’s footsteps from last winter and sign with another team.

However, most teams in the market for a shortstop look at Swanson as a fallback option behind Correa, Turner and Bogaerts. Throw in the fact Swanson is an Atlanta-area native and coming off his best season, and everything just matches up for the 28-year-old to stay with the Braves.

Prediction: Braves for six years and $144 million