The Schedule For The Fed’s 2023 Meetings, And What To Look For

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will meet to set interest rates eight times in 2023. We know the schedule. The main question will be how the Fed handles the transition to to an expected pause in rates. Interest rate futures suggest that the Fed will set and hold short-term rates in a 4% to 5% band for much of 2023, though we could see rate cuts in 2023 if the economy weakens.

When The Fed Will Announce Interest Rates In 2023?

The Fed will announce interest rates in 2023 on the following dates, with the announcement coming at 2pm Eastern Time. These announcements will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The Fed’s 2023 Meeting Schedule

• February 1, 2023
• March 22, 2023
• May 3, 2023
• June 14, 2023
• July 26, 2023
• September 20, 2023
• November 1, 2023
• December 13, 2023

Surveys Of Economic Projections

Within the dates above, the announcements in March, June, September and December may be considered more insightful by markets. This is because at these meetings the Fed will provide a summary of its economic projections.

These projections show where the Fed estimates key economic variables will trend. They also project path for interest rates with the so-call ‘dot plot’.

Publication Of Meeting Minutes

The Fed will also publish the minutes of its meeting, three weeks after each meeting has taken place. These minutes can provide more color on the Fed’s thinking and key areas of debate and uncertainty.

Months Where The Fed Won’t Meet In 2023

The Fed doesn’t set rates every month. In 2023, there won’t be any rate announcements in January, April, August and October. Of course, the Fed can set rates whenever it wishes, but we’ll only see rate decisions in these months if something more dramatic happens to the economy.

What To Look For

The key question that is likely dominate early 2023 is how to handle a pause in interest rates. Should inflation data continue to ease, then it’s likely the Fed will cease hiking rates aggressively. The question is how soon, and at what level, the Fed stops hiking rates.

Despite a move to a pause in rates, that may not occur rapidly. An increase in rates is expected at the Fed’s last meeting of 2022. Smaller hikes at the February and March meetings are considered probable, based on interest rate futures.

This means that Fed may reach a point to hold rates steady around the spring. However, some fear that prospects of a recession, will mean that the Fed may feel the need to cut rates later in 2023. However, this is viewed as a less likely scenario currently.

The Fed may hold rates within a 4% to 5% band for some time in 2023. Rates at this level are viewed as restrictive for the economy. The Fed expects holding rates here to be effective in bringing down inflation, and we’re seeing some signs that that may be working in late 2022, based on softer inflation numbers. However, high rates are also disrupting the housing market.

In 2023, the first half of the year is expected to see the Fed reach a point where it can hold rates steady. However, the second half of the year depends on how the economy fares, if it weakens, then the Fed could be cutting rates later in 2023.