GOP Looks To Regain Footing In Maine, A State In The Vanguard Of Progressive Reform

The 2022 election cycle has found the GOP more competitive in New England than it has been in years. Former Providence Mayor Allan Fung (R), who is running to fill the open U.S. House seat currently held by Congressman Jim Langevin (D), is up in the polls heading into Election Day. In New Hampshire, meanwhile, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Don Bolduc, received financial backing in the primary from Senator Chuck Schumer because Democrats viewed Bolduc as a more beatable opponent in November. Yet Bolduc now has a very real chance to win, with the Real Clear Politics polling average showing him to be in a dead heat with incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan (D).

In Maine, however, the last poll released before the election has Governor Janet Mills (D) with an eight point lead over her Republican challenger, former Governor Paul LePage (R). Yet even if Mills wins reelection, there is a decent chance she’ll be forced to work with a Republican-led statehouse, at least partially, for the first time.

The Portland Press-Herald reported that a Mills reelection means Democrats “would have the power to implement policies on issues such as abortion, taxes, health care and energy.” Yet that’s only true if Democrats also maintain control of both chambers of the state legislature in Augusta and polling shows that’s far from certain.

The Maine Democratic Party and outside groups backing Democratic state legislative candidates have outspent Republicans in an effort to maintain control of the legislature. Of the 151 seats in the Maine House of Representatives, Democrats hold 76. With nine seats vacant and three held by Independents, Republicans will need to gain 13 seats to take control of the chamber.

Control of the Maine Senate, where Democrats hold 22 seats and Republicans have 13, is also in play. Most of the spending on state legislative races in Maine this cycle, in fact, has gone toward state senate races. Democrats have deployed resources to defend prominent members of their Senate caucus, including Senate President Troy Jackson (D-Allagash). In the race to oust the Senate President, whose district went for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020, more than one million dollars has been spent on both sides according to a November 3 report.

Louis Jacobson with the Center for Politics at UVA wrote on October 20 that the Maine Legislature is “one of the GOP’s prime opportunities for a legislative takeover.” Jacobson added that “openness to ticket-splitting, both in New England generally and Maine specifically, could produce a flipped legislative chamber or two.”

If Republicans win control of the Maine Senate, that will make it fives times in the past seven elections that partisan control of the upper chamber in Maine has flipped. Republicans would prefer to win back control of both legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion, no doubt. But even if the GOP takes control of only one legislative chamber, be that the House or the Senate, that would have significant policy implications that greatly affect the type of legislation to be enacted in Maine over the next two years.

2022 will be the third election cycle under Maine’s controversial ranked choice voting system for federal candidates, which no other state uses except for Alaska. Last year, Governor Mills and the Democratic-led legislature made Maine the first state in the nation to enact an Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) program, which will place a fee on all consumer goods sold in plastic packaging. Since the enactment of that bill in Augusta, Governors Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.), Kate Brown (D-Ore.), and Jared Polis (D-Colo.) signed similar legislation. One Illinois legislator liked the Maine EPR bill so much she introduced a version that even maintained the EPR fee exemption for frozen wild blueberries included in the Maine law.

The days of Maine Democrats implementing progressive policy proposals not yet tested anywhere else will come to an end if Republicans take control of just one legislative chamber. If Republicans capture only one chamber of the state legislature and nothing else, that would also mean tax hikes are likely off the table, at least for the next two years. That’s because Maine Representative John Andrews has worked hard to get fellow incumbents and candidates running for House or Senate to sign the Taxpayer Protection Pledge. Among current and prospective office holders, nearly 70 incumbents and challengers for a seat in the Maine House or Senate have signed the pledge this cycle, as has Paul LePage.

“We must elect a majority of legislators committed to lowering the tax burden on the hard working people of our state,” says Maine Representative John Andrews (R-Paris). “Thankfully, a record two-thirds of Republican incumbents in the Maine House have signed the Pledge and will be faithful to it. That is how we chart a course to prosperity in Maine.”

The commitment that these incumbents and challengers in Maine have made to voters is the same promise that Governors Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin, Greg Abbott, and fourteen other governors have made. While 17 incumbent governors have signed a pledge to oppose and veto any bill that would result in a net tax hike, that number could grow in 2023. That’s because a number of 2022 gubernatorial candidates who polls show have a good chance of being sworn in come January — such as Tudor Dixon in Michigan and Kari Lake in Arizona — have also made that same commitment to voters.

If Republicans were to take back control of all of Maine state government, that will mean it was a phenomenal midterm election for the GOP. But Republicans don’t have to win back everything in Maine to change the direction in which the state is heading in from a policy standpoint. The way many see it, Maine is at a fork in the road when it comes to the direction of state governance. The outcome of the 2022 midterms will determine whether the future of policy and governance in Maine looks more like New Hampshire or Vermont.

“Maine faces a pivotal election on November 8th and every vote will matter,” Representative Andrews added. “It is imperative that liberty lovers and fiscal conservatives vote in record numbers to restore our foundational and economic freedoms.”

Maine won’t become a no-income-tax state like New Hampshire if Republicans only win back control of one legislative chamber. But winning one chamber will certainly prevent Maine from continuing to compete with the like of Oregon, California, and Vermont when it comes to the implementation of novel progressive reforms.