The Must-Watch Races That Will Decide The Senate

Arizona: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly’s strong early lead against Republican Blake Masters has dwindled in recent weeks as Masters has benefited from voters’ lack of faith in Democrats to handle economic issues, and GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake’s momentum could be pushing Republican voters to coalesce behind Masters—Cook Political report moved the race back to a toss-up in late October, after giving it a “lean Democrat” rating a month earlier.

Georgia: Republican candidate and retired NFL player Herschel Walker’s steady stream of scandals do not appear to have ended his bid to unseat Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), who maintains only a slim 1.2-point lead over Walker in polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. Two women alleged in October that Walker paid for their abortions, even though he supports a ban on the procedure; he’s also been accused of misleading the public by inaccuately suggesting he worked in law enforcement. (Cook Political Report also rates this race a toss-up.)

Nevada: Republican Adam Laxalt has made inroads on the slim polling lead Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) maintained throughout the summer and now leads the incumbent by less than one point, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, as the state’s inflation rate is among the highest in the country, and the tourism-reliant economy is still recovering from the pandemic.

Ohio: The Republican-leaning race (according to Cook) has moved slightly in favor of Hillbilly Elegy author and Trump favorite J.D. Vance, who now leads Rep. Tim Ryan (R) by 2.3 points in polls, despite Ryan casting himself as a moderate and distancing himself from Biden and Democratic leaders throughout the campaign—and on Tuesday, he became the second Democrat this election cycle to earn an endorsement from Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).

Pennsylvania: Polls show Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) and Republican Mehmet Oz deadlocked for the open seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, with polls showing Fetterman has a 1.1-point lead. Fetterman has billed Oz as an untrustworthy and extremist candidate who peddled dubious medical advice during his career as a television doctor, while Oz has raised Fetterman’s health as an issue after a May stroke left him with auditory processing issues that have noticeably affected his ability to clearly communicate.

Wisconsin: Democrats hope to unseat Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, but the odds have increasingly moved in the GOP’s favor, with Johnson, a two-term incumbent, holding a four-point edge over Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling tracker; the Cook Political Report rates it a toss-up.