The Diminishing Returns Of Victor Wembanyama’s Height

By this point, you will likely know about the name Victor Wembanyama. You might not yet know how to spell it, but you know that it is a thing. And whether you have or not, you are soon going to hear about him a million more times.

Wembanyama is the most exciting prospect to appear on the NBA’s horizons in a generation, and is truly the unicorn of every scout’s dreams. It really is unprecedented to see a man of his height do the things that he can do, triply so when done at the age that he is doing them. And if you think something along the lines of “I’ve heard that said a thousand times before” – in this instance, you really have not.

That same height – somewhere between 7’2″ and 7’4″, depending on who you choose to believe – is however both the thing that makes him special, and the thing that most needs protecting.

Because of his tremendous size, Wembanyama can both cover an unbelievable amount of ground defensively, and also play his perimeter offensive game without fear of being blocked. He truly does play like an out-and-out guard who just happened to get much taller than the competition. This is not a player whose “shooting” involves some spotting-up on looks that are set up for him by a playmaker. This is a player working off the dribble, throwing in jab-steps and the like, and playing a 6’3″ guy’s game in a 7’3″ guy’s body.

He will need to refine the moves and the touch, and get stronger in his frame, but you cannot suppress a Wembanyama shot. You can only contest it. His passing, too, benefits from the vision and reach made possible by his ability to see over everything. To be that unrufflable as well as that agile is a truly tantalising combination.

That said, if Victor truly is at the higher end of that estimated range – or, given his age, potentially still growing taller – there will come a point that that stops becoming a blessing, and becomes a concern.

There is no such thing as a guaranteed success in the NBA. Everyone has to earn their bones, prove their worth, and learn the nuances of the game beyond just what their body avails them, to the highest possible standards in the world. What Wembanyama has is a profile of skills and body type that will guarantee him some value at top level basketball, as long as he can stay healthy.

As far back as 2004, there have been studies attempting to establish any form of correlation between height and longevity in NBA basketball. It is hard to distinguish the signal from the noise, given the significant variable that is sample size – there are more smaller players to choose from, and with the larger pool of candidates comes higher turnover, thus the average career of smaller players all else being equal figures to be less than those of the giant.

Nevertheless, anecdotal though they may be, the NBA is littered with examples of players whose sheer size cost them their health. One of the best examples of the past generation was that of another unicorn, the great Yao Ming, who, as skilled as he was, kept breaking his foot from having to move a frame that big that often. He played only five games after his 29th birthday. For all his pioneering prowess, his peak was fleeting.

Wembanyama is far wirier than a Yao type, and thus will surely always carry less weight. But that same agility, and the amount of ground he will cover compared to the paint-based game most seven-footers play, might offset that advantage. Exciting though it is, after a certain point, more height might not help Wembanyama any. The shot is already unblockable; let us instead ensure he is durable, something that gets harder with every inch.