What To Expect From Justin Verlander

Right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander will be making his fifth appearance in the World Series and third with the Houston Astros after sweeping the New York Yankees in the 2022 American League Championship Series. A Most Valuable Player (2011) and two-time Cy Young Award winner (2011, 2019), Verlander is the prohibitive favorite to win the prestigious pitching award for a third time when voting results are announced in November. A marvel of modern medicine and perseverance, the 39-year-old is performing at an elite level after September 2020 surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. After the requisite five year waiting period upon retirement, expect Verlander to be enshrined in the National Baseball Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. The intensely competitive pitcher is far from concluding his exceptional career as Verlander has numerous goals he still wants to achieve beginning with his first winning decision in a World Series ball game.

Already one of 19 pitchers in baseball history who has amassed at least 3,000 strikeouts, Verlander is also part of multiple subsets within this impressive group. He is one of nine starting pitchers who have eclipsed 3,000 strikeouts, won at least two Cy Young Awards, and pitched on a world championship winning ball club. Taking this subset to another level of greatness, only Verlander (2011), Bob Gibson (1968), and Roger Clemens (1986) have also won their league’s Most Valuable Player Award. Verlander further distinguishes himself among the nine iconic starting pitchers as he alone has achieved each of these extraordinary accomplishments plus winning a Rookie of the Year Award (2006).

Amid the individual accolades, there is something missing from Verlander’s Hall of Fame resumé: a winning decision in a World Series ball game. In seven starts across four World Series (2006, 2012, 2017, 2019), Verlander has posted an 0-6 record with a 5.68 earned run average (ERA). Surprisingly, he has never completed seven innings in a World Series ball game or had a double digit strikeout performance.

In 17 seasons as a major league pitcher, Verlander has started 482 regular season ball games and has pitched at least seven innings in 251 of them according to Baseball-Reference. He has achieved 72 double digit strikeout ball games. On 45 occasions during the regular season, Verlander struck out at least 10 batters over a minimum of seven innings. The closest Verlander has come to replicating this feat in the Fall Classic had occurred in Game Six of the 2017 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Verlander struck out nine batters over six innings, but the Astros were defeated by the score of 3-1.

Verlander has never exited a World Series ball game in which the score was tied, or he was in line for the victory. The only time he was part of a team that had won a World Series ball game in which he had started was Game Two of the 2017 World Series where the Astros had defeated the Dodgers by the score of 7-6 in 11 innings. Verlander struck out five batters over six innings while surrendering three earned runs. He left the ball game after six innings of work trailing 3-1.

An interesting observation thanks to Baseball-Reference’s Stathead reveals that 68 pitchers have achieved a minimum of 35 innings pitched in World Series ball games, and Verlander is the only one without a victory. His 5.68 ERA over 38 innings is also the second highest in this group and only trails Carl Erskine of the Dodgers who had a 5.83 ERA over 41.2 innings in five World Series (1949, 1952, 1953, 1955, 1956). Verlander is tied with Hall of Famer Jim “Catfish” Hunter for the most home runs allowed (9) among all pitchers in World Series history.

Game One of the 2022 World Series will be the first time Verlander pitches the opening ball game of the Fall Classic for the Astros. As a Game One starter in the World Series on two previous occasions (2006, 2012) while pitching for the Detroit Tigers, Verlander had allowed a combined 11 earned runs over nine innings pitched while producing an 11.00 ERA with 12 strikeouts and a 1.667 walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP). Verlander made it through five innings in Game One of the 2006 World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals allowing six earned runs on eight strikeouts but was the losing pitcher as the Tigers were defeated by the score of 7-2. In Game One of the 2012 World Series against the San Francisco Giants, Verlander surrendered five earned runs over four innings with four strikeouts and was the losing pitcher in an 8-3 contest.

Besides the similarities when it comes to winning multiple Cy Young Awards, a Most Valuable Player Award, 3,000 strikeouts, and both playing for the Astros during the latter part of their careers, Clemens and Verlander will share another special distinction. Verlander will become only the second pitcher with a World Series start in three different decades joining Clemens. His first World Series start had occurred in 2006 when he was just 23-years-old. In 2012, Verlander returned to the World Series as a 29-year-old and then again in 2017 (34-years-old) and 2019 (36-years-old).

Irrelevance has come to define the win statistic in recent years thanks to analytics. However, don’t mention this to Justin Verlander. Regardless of his impeccable credentials, Verlander still craves a signature World Series moment. Success in the Fall Classic represents an indelible mark of authenticity regardless of sustained regular season excellence. It could be as grandiose as a Don Larsen perfect game or a Bob Gibson 17 strikeout performance. Verlander can achieve both, but he will be content for the time being simply adding a victory next to his name in a World Series box score.