Premier League Relegation Battle Tightest In Ten Years

With Nottingham Forest’s win over Liverpool at the weekend, the gap between the bottom of the Premier League and the top ten is just five points.

The bottom half of the Premier League is closer after twelve games this season than in any of the last ten seasons.

The gap between bottom-of-the-league Forest and tenth place West Ham United is five points, although this could potentially be a six-point gap if Crystal Palace win their game in hand against Brighton and Hove Albion. In five of the past ten years, the gap between tenth and bottom at this stage of the season has been ten or more points, with a 17-point gap between Sheffield United at the bottom and Aston Villa in tenth after the Blades had played twelve games in 2020/21.

The smallest gap in the decade before this season was eight points, and on two of the three occasions that there was an eight-point gap, the team at the bottom after twelve games survived.

With just three games left until the World Cup break, clubs that can avoid being cut adrift will have a chance to sort out their problems in November and December and line up any new signings ready for when the transfer window opens in January.

That could make the next three games potentially season-defining for teams in the bottom half of the table.

Already, Aston Villa and Wolverhampton Wanderers have sacked their head coaches in an attempt to turn around their poor starts to the season.

Brendan Rogers at Leicester City and Steve Cooper at Nottingham Forest have also been under severe pressure before their sides saw a recent uptick in results. Leicester have ten points from their last five games. Forest meanwhile look to have sorted out what was the league’s leakiest defense, keeping back-to-back clean sheets against Brighton and Liverpool and conceding just one goal from open play in their last four games.

Now the pressure seems to be on Leeds United manager Jesse Marsch. Leeds are level on points with Wolves and Forest at the bottom of the league and face tough away games at Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur before the World Cup break. They have the worst form in the league, picking up just one point from their past five games.

Any side in the bottom half could get dragged into a relegation battle in the next three games and any side in the drop zone could get themselves out of immediate trouble.

While being “bottom at Christmas” isn’t quite as meaningful this year due to the fewer games played, being cut adrift could make it harder to bring in players in January. On the other hand, staying within a few points of safety will give the teams currently in the relegation zone a massive boost, with the long break in December giving managers a chance to work on any problems in the hope that they can turn around their club’s fortunes after Christmas.