Kevin McCarthy, The Progressives, And Public Opinion On Ukraine

Last week, House Speaker in waiting Kevin McCarthy told reporters from Punchbowl News that well-documented polling concerns about a possible recession mean that Americans are “not going to write a blank check to Ukraine.” While conceding that Ukraine is important, he continued, “They just won’t do it.” It’s hard to know if these comments were McCarthy’s attempt to nail down his long-sought speakership bid among the Republican caucus or whether they are a fair reading of public opinion. McCarthy himself has been largely supportive of aid to Ukraine thus far, but he knows that many of his members are voicing skepticism. On the other side of the aisle, with Nancy Pelosi in Croatia, urging steadfast support for Ukraine, 30 Democratic Progressives released a letter, drafted in July, proposing direct engagement with Russia to end the war. The letter produced a backlash in the Democratic caucus, which has supported Ukraine’s efforts. Where is the American public?

The Chicago Council recently released an update on the results of a summer survey of attitudes toward the war. Their results, along with excellent tracking data from Ipsos and Reuters provide a clear picture of American attitudes. The results provide some support for the comments of McCarthy and the Progressives.

The Chicago Council found strong majority support across partisan lines for increasing economic and diplomatic sanctions, sending additional arms and military supplies to Ukraine, and providing economic assistance. On each of these issues, Democrats were more willing to help Ukraine than Republicans, but large majorities of Republicans were supportive as well. In another question about accepting Ukrainian refugees, Republicans were less enthusiastic than Democrats although two-thirds still supported resettlement. Reflecting long-standing concerns about putting American soldiers in harm’s way, far fewer, only 38% nationally, supported sending US troops to Ukraine.

Ipsos/Reuters has conducted seven waves of surveys since Russia’s invasion. In its early October survey, 35% nationally agreed with the statement “the problems of Ukraine are none of our business, and we should not interfere,” but a robust 65% disagreed. The Ipsos/Reuters polling team has recorded very little change on this question since late February. While this question asks specifically about Ukraine, the 35% figure aligns with responses to a question asked since the 1940s about whether it was better for the US to take an active role in foreign affairs or whether it is better for the US to stay out. Over time, around two-thirds have said it is better for the US to play an active role.

Several questions in the survey provide some support for the dissenters’ views. In one question, 74% said they worried a great deal or a fair amount about fuel and gas prices, up from 69% in the spring. Reflecting the deep concerns Americans have about the economy, 62% said they were following stories about the invasion, but nearly eight in ten, 79%, said they were following stories about inflation. A bare majority, 53% agreed that “paying more for fuel and gas because of sanctions against Russia is worthwhile to defend another democratic country”, but 47% disagreed. The “paying more” response is down slightly from their March and April polls when around 60% agreed that paying more was worthwhile.

A more political question showed a larger deterioration in support: nearly seven in ten (69%) said they would be more likely to support a candidate in November who continued to support Ukraine, down from 76% in April. As virtually all polls conducted since the 1930s show, Americans want to sit down with adversaries for discussions. Sixty-three percent in the new poll wanted the US to continue diplomatic efforts with Russia.

People in the Ipsos poll gave Democrats a slight edge over Republicans in terms of having a better plan, policy or approach to Ukraine 28% to 25%. But Republicans have a slight edge over Democrats in their approach to Russia (27% v 25%) and Putin (27% v 24%). Each of these questions have large “don’t know” responses, suggesting the public is not focusing on partisan approaches.

As we learned in the 1970s and 1980s, it is a mistake to underestimate the ripple effect of corrosive inflation. But at least for now, Americans of different partisan stripes appear committed to helping Ukraine.