Topline
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke has shrunk to just two percentage points among Texans who definitely plan to vote in the midterms, according to a new survey from Democratic polling firm Beacon Research, suggesting a possible momentum shift after Abbott built a strong polling lead.
Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke gestures during a campaign rally on August … [+]
Key Facts
The poll found Abbott ahead 48%-45% among 1,264 registered voters, and up 48%-46% among the 1,125 surveyed who definitely plan to go to the polls.
Abbott’s lead drops to just one percentage point (48%-47%) among the 948 surveyed who are “extremely motivated” to vote.
The slim margins represent a major departure from recent polls suggesting Abbott was extending his lead, which had grown to 8.7 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Immigration and border security was the top issue among those polled (22%), followed by the economy, jobs and inflation (20%)—topics widely considered winners for Republicans.
Abbott holds a monumental 94%-4% lead with voters naming immigration as their top issue and a 65%-23% lead among those most concerned about the economy, but O’Rourke dominates among voters naming any other issue, like abortion or gun safety.
Both candidates hold more than 90% support with voters in their own party, but independents swing slightly in favor of O’Rourke—47%-41%.
Key Background
Democrats have been strategizing plans to turn Texas blue for years, pinning hopes on quickly growing young and Latino populations in the state, with O’Rourke’s 2.6 percentage point loss against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) fueling high hopes for Democrats heading into the 2020 election. But the party fell well short of expectations two years ago—former President Donald Trump comfortably carried the state by nearly six points and the GOP maintained control of the Texas legislature. Abbott is hoping favorable trends for the GOP nationally in this year’s midterms, along with recent Republican gains among Latino voters, will propel him. The governor has made border security the signature issue of his campaign, repeatedly blaming President Joe Biden for an influx of immigrants. Abbott also notably started a busing program to drop off undocumented immigrants in Democratic-leaning cities, which the White House called a “publicity stunt.” O’Rourke’s campaign has launched repeated attacks against the governor on gun issues, claiming he did not take enough action after a massacre left 19 children and two teachers dead in Uvalde in May. Polls have repeatedly suggested Texas voters want to see more action on gun control.
Further Reading
Democrats Push To Win Texas House By Promising Massive Healthcare Expansion (Forbes)
For Republicans, winning Hispanic voters will be a bigger fight than South Texas (Texas Tribune)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2022/10/23/surprise-poll-orourke-closing-gap-with-texas-gov-abbott/