Even Old Dogs Can Teach Valuable Tricks

It was a shock to see news reports across the networks this morning that former U.K. military aviators have been persuaded to move to China and support an ambitious upskilling program for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). U.K. Ministry of Defence (MoD) officials claim that up to thirty former Royal Air Force (RAF), Royal Navy Fleet Air Arm (RN FAA) and Army Air Corps (AAC) aircrew are understood to be working in China; aircrew with mainly fast jet experience, though including a handful of former helicopter pilots. MoD continued by trying to minimise the concern caused by noting that many of the pilots identified are in their late 50s, having retired 15-20 years ago — and most with experience of flying older aircraft no longer in U.K. service such as the Tornado, Jaguar, and Harrier. The inference is that any platform, weapons or Tactics Techniques and Procedures (TTPs) knowledge that these former operators pass on, overtly or inadvertently, is already out of date.

That’s all well and good from a U.K. perspective, but the Tornado is still in service with other NATO nations, Germany and Italy, as well as in Saudi Arabia, whilst the Jaguar is still flown by India (which has a long running border dispute with China). The Harrier is still flown by the U.S. Marine Corps, and by both the Italians and Spanish in Europe. Therefore, while any leakage of inappropriate data to the Chinese may not have direct consequences for the U.K., the same cannot be said of some important allies.

To me this revelation poses three key questions;

1. Why are the Chinese working so hard to hire U.K. pilots lacking recent experience?

2. Why are former colleagues from the U.K. military willing to work in China?

3. What can, and perhaps should, the U.K. MoD do stop it?

Firstly, If the people the Chinese are, to coin a phrase, ‘Shanghai-ing,’ are Western aviators of a ‘certain vintage,’ with experience of distinctly legacy platforms, what are they getting out of it? Although an ex-Tornado or Jaguar pilot may be of limited utility discussing decades old weapons employment on a largely analogue platform, they will still ‘think’ in much the same way that NATO forces still do. They will approach Mission Planning in a manner closely aligned to their current peers. One of the seemingly stand out failings of Russian airpower in Ukraine has been an apparent inability to synchronise their efforts; for Western militaries, operating in a Composite Air Operation (COMAO) is second nature. The daily missions are planned by a dedicated and trained battlestaff who apply principles of synergy, mutual support and force multiplication to determine the ‘best’ way to achieve that 24hr cycle’s outputs in line with the Commander’s overall campaign intent. Operating as a COMAO allows relatively small numbers of High Value Air Assets (HVAAs), such as Electronic Warfare (EW), Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), and Airborne Surveillance and Control (ASaC) platforms to be effective over multiple individual sub-missions, and for each sub-mission in turn to act as a supporting or diversionary effort. The desired end state of the COMAO process is precisely that synergistic effect — the output will be measurably greater than the sum of the constituent parts. To plan such complex and dynamic missions, promulgate the instructions and keep all crews on the same page requires intensive training and regular practice. This is, potentially, some of the value that older aviators could impart: not the ‘what’ but the ‘how.’

There’s also the possibility that the PLAAF are trying to ‘normalise deviance’ by seducing aircrew to China in the hope that word will get back and crews with more recent platform and operational experience see it as, perhaps, no different to working a contract in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere in the Middle East. There’s no doubt that China would like to learn more about the latest upgrades to Typhoon and the new 5th Generation F-35, in the same way the West would be keen to understand more about the PLAAF’s J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon.’ Since the news has broken, several former pilots on an assortment of Media platforms have acknowledged that it has been well known in certain circles that this ‘brain drain’ has been going on for a while – their question is ‘why discuss it now?’ Maybe it’s an attempt to deflect attention away from a spate of recent embarrassments the RAF has suffered with poor discipline in its showpiece Red Arrows aerobatic team, challenges to the legality of its recruiting policy (seemingly favouring minorities and female applicants over white males) and the slow-motion car crash of a failing flying training system, specified by the military at a time of historic low throughput, which the contractor is struggling to overcome within the commercial and budget boundaries imposed.

To my second question, why are former U.K. military aviators prepared to work and fly in China? The simple answer is often the right one: in this case, it’s almost certainly not ideology – it’s money. The MoD are suggesting that salaries of up to £240k ($270k) are being offered. This is some three times the average salary of a serving front line pilot, and some ten times the immediate pension they expect to receive upon retirement. Over the past decade the buying power of aircrew in the U.K. has declined, as salaries have effectively been frozen due to a combination of post-financial crash austerity and the impact on the public purse of the coronavirus pandemic. The lifestyle I was able to lead as a junior pilot on a squadron, with a reasonably well-maintained, and good value, Service Married Quarter and other perks is now, according to many, out of reach. Moreover, the culture inside the military has been changing – with many older operators not adapting well to the new socially aware stance that’s expected, and finding promotion ever tougher to achieve. Therefore, for a pilot reaching the end of his/her service, the promise of a comparatively huge payday, which could theoretically set them up for the rest of their life, is understandably appealing. Reports suggest that many of those in China are in their late 50s; I would suggest that some might be ex-military former airline pilots who got caught on the ‘wrong’ fleet at the time of the mass culling during the worse of the pandemic. For many, the ‘wrong’ fleet was the four engine Boeing 747, as airlines retired them en masse in favour of more economical twin engine designs, amid the sharp decline in international travel. I know many former RAF colleagues flying 747s who literally lost their well paid jobs overnight. From the perspective of a mid-50s airline pilot, potentially with a family still in school/university (and, statistically, probably at least one ex-wife….), the opportunity to earn such large sums when the job landscape around them is desolate, and they are considered too old to economically retrain to newer aircraft, is obviously appealing. They may even be telling themselves ‘I can’t reveal any secrets because I’m so out of touch’ or ‘is it really any different to working in Saudi?’ The fact remains that some 30 aircrew have made peace with their choice.

So, lastly, what can the MoD do about it? It’s clearly embarrassing to the U.K. in front of her Allies, and the MoD will be desperate to staunch the flow now before too much ‘recency’ heads in the same direction. Sadly, even though looking down the barrel of a severe pilot shortage themselves as the drift of ‘pandemic returnees’ back to the civil world, natural wastage and a struggling training system all conspire to threaten front line numbers, there is no way, seemingly, that the U.K. military can provide an adequate financial or lifestyle ‘carrot.’ Structural issues with pay, conditions and housing will take decades to fix as years of underinvestment continue to bite hard. Plus, many pilots are facing a future of more simulator rather than ‘stick’ time as budget restrictions and the expense flying of modern combat aircraft, force flying rates down and virtual flying up. Pilots want to fly, not pretend to.

Therefore, the U.K. Government and MoD appear to be firmly adopting the ‘stick’ philosophy.

In response to U.K. Defence Intelligence services issuing a ‘threat alert,’ Armed Forces Minister James Heappey has told media outlets that he intends to make it a legal offence for pilots to continue to deliver training to the PLAAF having received a warning to cease and desist. This ‘two strike’ policy follows an admission by Heappey to Sky News that ‘We’ve approached the people involved and have been clear of them that it’s our expectation they would not continue…we are going to put into law that once people have been given that warning it will become an offence to go forward and continue with that training.’

There is, of course, a further, if remote, possibility to consider. Have some of these so called ‘mercenaries’ gone to China with tacit MoD blessing? Have they been sent to instil false techniques and doctrine into the PLAAF, and/or have they been asked to look and report back on what they see? We’ll likely never know, but the fact remains that I imagine any former military aviators returning to the U.K., rather than face the legal consequences, will face a thorough, and likely uncomfortable, debriefing. It would perhaps offer some crumbs of intelligence that may, in some way, partially ameliorate what has perhaps been lost.

Western pilots flying in China is nothing new. The exploits of the American Volunteer Group, the famed ‘Flying Tigers,’ echoes through history. However, given current geopolitical tensions, perhaps, at the moment, it’s time to take a moment and reconsider the implications, and second/third order impacts, of Western expertise leaking into the PLAAF. But, should that ‘tactical pause’ also include broader consideration of the liberal employment of Western ex-military aircrew in other areas, especially the Middle East, or do we imply that China is a different case?

Either way, in the ‘global village,’ there may still be plenty of Western pilots wishing to accept that large salary in exchange for permanent exile from their country of birth. That’s an issue that Western governments need to consider when they next debate pay and conditions for their expensively trained and highly prized aviators.