Decision To Not Extend Grant Williams Could Be Risky For Celtics

Grant Williams and the Boston Celtics failed to reach an agreement on a rookie contract extension before the deadline yesterday, thus turning Williams into a restricted free agent in 2023, assuming they extend him a qualifying offer, which they very likely will.

The lack of a new deal was in some ways surprising, not only due to Williams’ crucial role in the Celtics lineup, but also due to the forthcoming cap spike when a new TV deal is going to be agreed upon. Even without one, the NBA salary cap jumped roughly $11 million from 2021 to 2022 with the league still growing in global popularity.

As such, any deal signed now would only take up less and less of the cap from a percentage perspective, over the course of the next few years.

Salary demands

According to Michael Scotto from Hoopshype, Williams would have been ready to sign a deal worth around $14-15 million per year.

If that report is accurate, it defies belief as to why Boston would not jump at that type of salary structure. Even under the current cap of $123 million, a $15 million salary for Williams, one of the team’s most versatile defenders and best shooters, would be a steal. And when taking into consideration that his new deal wouldn’t even activate until next season, when the cap is projected to come in at $134 million, it makes even less for Boston to not lock up Williams now, and avoid restricted free agency.

Now, of course, Williams and his team could have been asking for considerably more, but even so, the Celtics have now opened themselves up, which could have been avoided.

By letting Williams enter restricted free agency, teams with considerable cap space can in 2023 force Boston to make a tough decision. The San Antonio Spurs, who have virtually no long-term money on their books, could easily sign Williams to a ridiculous offer sheet of well over $20 million. The Celtics would either let him go to the Spurs and thus lose him for nothing, or they’d match the contract and get him back on a deal significantly larger than what they otherwise could have had him on.

Remember, a salary of $15 million per year is very soon going to be similar value as the league’s non-tax mid-level exception. Williams, 23, is likely going to further improve, and his role increase, in coming years. If he turns into a fully fledged high-tier starter, $15 million would be considered a low compensation level.

Extension complications down the road

There really is only one potential long-term issue by signing Williams to a cheap deal, and it’s one that’s becoming an increasing problem within the NBA.

By signing players to cheap contracts, a team is limited in their ability to extend those players later on.

When the Spurs signed Dejounte Murray to a contract worth $16 million per year, and then saw him explode into an All-Star, that complicated matters greatly, as they were limited to extending him at only 120% of the value of his income in that last season.

That number would have fallen far short of the contract he’s worth on the open market, making it extremely likely that Murray would have opted for unrestricted free agency, where the Spurs could have lost him for nothing. They avoided that situation by trading him to Atlanta during the summer.

Granted, it appears unlikely that Williams ever turns into an All-Star, so perhaps that complication didn’t factor into Boston’s decision making process, but that would literally be the only downside of paying the forward $15 million per year.

And now, the Celtics are all of the sudden playing a dangerous game. For a team that just made the Finals, and are looking to get back there, one would think they would have preferred to not have any contractual elements hanging over their heads.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.