Rival Middle East Powers Are Now Arming Both Sides Of A European War

On Sept. 13, Ukraine’s defense ministry tweeted photos of the remains of an Iranian-built Shahed-136 drone its forces had shot down over the country’s eastern Kharkiv province. The incident occurred just two months after the White House disclosed that Iran was supplying “hundreds” of its domestically-built military drones to Russia and mere weeks after the first delivery of these armed drones was confirmed.

It was a striking reminder of the new rapidly unfolding reality: Middle Eastern powers are now supplying armed drones to the two warring sides in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Historically, this is a significant turnabout. After all, during the long years of the Cold War, the United States and its Western allies, on the one side, and the Soviet Union, on the other, supplied stupendous quantities of arms to warring Middle East countries. This was aptly exemplified by the frantic, simultaneous U.S. and Soviet airlifts of armaments and supplies to their regional allies, Israel on the one side and Egypt and Syria on the other, during the October 1973 Arab-Israeli War.

Now, as Europe endures its most dangerous and destructive conflict since the end of the Second World War, it is rival Middle East powers that are actively arming both sides.

Bayraktars for Kyiv

Turkey began supplying Ukraine with its well-known Bayraktar TB2 drones before this war erupted following Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion. There were also discussions before Feb. 24 to build a factory for locally manufacturing Turkish drones on Ukrainian soil. Russia’s invasion has failed to force Ankara and Kyiv to abandon these plans. In retrospect, it may well have unwittingly proven to have sped them up.

Ankara did not cease supplying Kyiv with TB2 drones after Feb. 24. In fact, the size of Ukraine’s fleet appears to have more than doubled since then. Before the war, Turkey supplied about two-dozen TB2s. Since the war began, Kyiv has reportedly received at least 50 drones, with even more on the way. These armed drones played a substantial role helping Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion, especially early in the war when Moscow had its sights set on Kyiv.

Plans are still underway to build that Turkish drone factory in Ukraine. On Sept. 9, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky received Haluk Bayraktar, the CEO of Baykar Defense, manufacturer of the eponymous Bayraktar drones, in Kyiv. “We discussed the details of the construction of the Baykar factory in Ukraine and the production of new products using Ukrainian components,” Zelenskyy said after their meeting.

Furthermore, according to Turkey’s state-run press, the Ukraine plant will assemble the new Bayraktar Ainici drone (which is far larger, more heavily armed and advanced than the TB2) and the upcoming Kizilelma uncrewed fighter jet.

Shaheds for Moscow

Iran’s supply of drones to Russia is far more recent and in its early stages. As early as 2019, Russia, according to Iran’s state-run press, expressed interest in potentially acquiring some of Iran’s indigenously-produced drones. Tehran has developed a variety of drones, from reconnaissance and surveillance to armed and “suicide” models, also known as loitering munitions.

It would not be surprising if Iran and Russia also have plans to jointly manufacture Iranian drones on Russian soil, especially as Moscow is ultimately seeking to acquire hundreds of these drones per the White House claim. Such a move would not be unprecedented for Tehran. After all, it opened a factory for building its Ababil-2 drones in Tajikistan in May. Furthermore, Iranian drones are relatively easy to manufacture. Tehran has already taught some of its proxy militias how to locally assemble them clandestinely in countries such as Yemen and Iraq.

The Ukraine conflict is the first one in which Iranian drones have been used outside of the Middle East (Turkish-built TB2s, on the other hand, have seen combat in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh). While they are not likely to singlehandedly turn the tide of the war in Russia’s favor, there are already some indications that they could pose a serious threat to the Ukrainian forces. Shahed-136s recently destroyed one of Ukraine’s long-range American-supplied M777 howitzers, an artillery system that has played an important role, alongside Ukraine’s American M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), in countering Russia’s powerful artillery. A Ukrainian colonel told the New York Times that if Kyiv is not provided with adequate countermeasures, these Iranian-supplied drones “will destroy all our artillery.” According to President Zelensky, Ukraine has shot down eight Iranian drones so far in this conflict.

Conclusion

If this war drags on into the coming months and years, it would not be surprising if more sophisticated and deadly Turkish and Iranian drones appear over that Eastern European battlefield. Turkey and Iran may well use Ukraine as an opportunity to test their newer drones in a more challenging combat environment. Russia cynically used Syria as a “live-fire training opportunity” for several weapons systems it had never used in combat. Turkey’s Akinci could potentially make its combat debut in this war in Ukrainian service. Russia and Iran, which have expanded their military-technical cooperation since the start of this war, may even jointly develop new drones after extensivelyevaluating the combat performance of existing Iranian models in this war.

Nobody knows for sure what will happen next in Ukraine. However, the influx of Middle Eastern-made weaponry into a European conflict is already unprecedented in modern history. Neither Turkey nor Iran will likely stop arming these two bitter adversaries anytime soon. If anything, they will likely expand these armament programs quantitatively and qualitatively, further enabling Moscow and Kyiv to continue fighting for the foreseeable future.