A Ukrainian Bomber Makes A Surprise Appearance—Streaking Low Over The Front Line

The Ukrainian air force’s aging Su-24 bomber crews continue to defy the odds. Despite heavy losses early in the war, the air force’s single squadron of the swing-wing, two-seat bombers is flying missions in support of the Ukrainian army’s twin counteroffensives in the south and east.

A video that circulated online on Thursday depicts a single Su-24, belonging to the 7th Bomber Regiment at Starokostiantyniv in western Ukraine, streaking at treetop height over a Ukrainian artillery battery somewhere near the battlefield.

The Su-24’s appearance, more than 200 days into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, is remarkable for a couple of reasons. Not the least because, in the first few months of the war, the Russians shot down 11 of the roughly dozen of the 1970s-vintage bombers that then were in active service with the Ukrainian air force.

It’s obvious now that Kyiv’s technicians have been reconditioning and returning to squadron service some of the Su-24s that were in long-term storage. As recently as 2015, there were as many as 47—and perhaps more—intact Su-24 airframes in reserve, mostly in Bila Tserkva, just south of Kyiv in central Ukraine.

The Su-24’s Thursday sortie also is notable because the plane and its crew apparently survived their bombing run. Independent analysts haven’t noted any recent Ukrainian warplane losses. By contrast, the Ukrainians claim they’ve shot down no fewer than four Russian Su-24s in a little over a week, including three on Wednesday.

The Ukrainians’ claim is hard to verify. It’s worth noting, however, that independent analysts have confirmed five Russian warplane losses since the Ukrainian counteroffensives kicked off on Aug. 30. None is an Su-24.

In any event, the Ukrainian bomber’s sortie on Thursday is yet another data point underscoring the enduring strength of the tiny Ukrainian air force as the war grinds into its seventh month.

The Ukrainian air force began the war with around 125 operational fixed-wing warplanes, including some three dozen Su-27 interceptors, 50 or so MiG-29 fighters, perhaps 30 Su-25 attack jets and the dozen Su-24s.

All of the jets were Soviet models that Ukraine inherited from the Soviet Union following its 1991 collapse. All were more than 30 years old—and only a few had gotten significant upgrades.

But the Russian air force, despite having hundreds of new fighters and—in theory—an overwhelming technological advantage, failed to gain control of the air over Ukraine. Chalk it up in equal measures to Russian incompetence and heroic Ukrainian resistance.

Analysts have confirmed the destruction of 42 Ukrainian jets since the war widened on Feb. 24. That’s just 12 fewer jets than the Russians have lost. The attrition of a third of the Ukrainian air arm should have grounded it for good. But Ukrainian engineers have proved that, with adequate spare parts, they can keep old planes flying and return even older airframes to flightworthy status.

An influx of spares back in April, possibly from Poland, helped the Ukrainians to fix 20 or so fighters, mostly MiG-29s. As a result of intensive maintenance and the restoration of stored airframes, it’s possible Kyiv has stabilized its warplane inventory at around a hundred.

Ukraine’s aerial losses meanwhile have slowed as its MiG-29s and Su-27s, recently modified to fire American-made anti-radar missiles, escalate their campaign against Russian air-defenses.

Russian losses haven’t declined—at least not as much. Ukraine’s own air-defenses, after all, arguably are getting stiffer as ex-German Gepard mobile guns arrive in growing numbers.

The upshot is that Ukraine’s Su-24s, once nearly extinct, just might be able to stay in the fight—maybe even to the end.