Erling Haaland’s Record Premier League Goal Tally For Manchester City Was Expected

In the aftermath of Manchester City’s Erling Haaland’s second successive three-goal haul in a matter of days, a fan reaction video went viral.

It showed a Manchester United supporter peering room a living room door and shouting incredulously; “f**king Haaland has scored a hat-trick in 38 minutes. He scored a hat-trick last game, we’re four games into the season and do you know how many goals he’s scored? 9.”

To the amusement of much of the internet the fan gets more and more outraged, “four games” he repeats with rising exasperation, “he’s scored half the amount you need to be classed as a great striker already. Do you know how many games there are? 38.”

It’s fair to say that this fan is not alone in being dumbfounded at the Norwegian striker’s numbers, most people expected Haaland to score, but not at this rate.

However, a dig into the numbers shows we really shouldn’t be surprised the combination of Manchester City and Erling Haaland has resulted in an avalanche of goals.

The evidence was there from the start.

Chance conversion machine…

Gone are the days when a new signing from abroad carries any mystique in the Premier League. The internet content machine means fans and media alike get a solid sense of a player well before they’ve taken to the field in club’s colors.

Even youngsters from South America have highlights reels to be shared on social media and publicly available stats to pour over.

So when it comes to names as stellar as Erling Haaland there is no excuse for people not knowing what Manchester City was getting: the best finisher in Europe.

This isn’t an opinion it is a testable truth, as the website Squawka explained: “Erling Haaland is the most clinical player in European football. That’s an objective fact.”

By way of an explanation, the outlet pointed to data that showed of the 800-odd players on the continent who took at least a couple of shots per game, excluding penalties, Haaland’s conversion rate of 27.3% was the best.

Another way to understand this deadliness is in the terms Analytics FC put it for the Daily Mail: Haaland scores on every fourth shot he takes. A better record, the newspaper points out, than Kylian Mbappe, Karim Benzema and Robert Lewandowski.

Using the expected goals (xG) metric, which breaks down a player’s chances by the average likeliness to score, Haaland also demonstrated an ability to convert opportunities with a high degree of difficulty.

Based on the chances created for him last season he had an xG of 15, but the Norwegian scored 22 goals. This shows he doesn’t just score open goals, he is adept at finishing harder opportunities too.

…Meet the chance creation machine

Such numbers would be a daunting prospect whatever team Haaland was joining, but with Manchester City, he has picked the side which has consistently been creating the most chances in the division.

Analysis by Infogol for gambling company Betfair shows City last season had an average expected goals per game of 2.42. This means, based on the quality of chances being created, they should have scored at least a couple of goals a game.

Creating chances is, of course, no guarantee that goals will be scored and that has been the issue at City for the past few years.

Often injured in his last season talented finisher Sergio Aguero left the club in the summer of 2021 and, in his absence, forwards Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus failed to take on the mantle.

Analysis by The Athletic in 2021, which looked at ‘big chance’ conversion found Sterling and Jesus were both finishing fewer than half the easiest chances they were presented with.

By contrast, Erling Haaland scored almost two-thirds of these types of opportunities.

How Haaland is making the difference

It stands to reason that if you combine these two factors, the incredible chance converter with a goal conversion machine it will result in record numbers.

That is demonstrated in Haaland’s stats, but it can also be seen when you compare how the team performs on a game-by-game basis.

When Manchester City played Crystal Palace in March 2022 the game finished 0-0, meaning the Mancunians dropped valuable points in the title race with Liverpool.

The draw was all the more galling because as normal City created a host of chances they failed to convert, racking up an xG of 2.37 against Palace’s 0.66.

Several months later the teams met again and an even more frustrating defeat appeared to be on the cards with Palace somehow going 2-0 up with only one shot on target.

However, with chance converter supreme Haaland now in City’s ranks, there was less of a risk of the Citizens wasting the chances it created.

This was very much the case, in the second half, a Haaland hat-trick powered a 4-2 comeback victory, with the side considerably outperforming its game xG of 2.24.

Soccer is by its very nature an unpredictable sport where anything can happen.

But this season one thing is inevitable: Erling Haaland + Manchester City = goals, lots of goals.