A popular crypto strategist says that Ethereum (ETH) and the crypto markets could ignite sharp rallies this month regardless of what happens in the highly anticipated merge.
In a new strategy session, Cred highlights that the merge is scheduled to happen on the same day (September 13th) that the latest inflation data is released.
According to Cred, the inflation data will likely dictate the price action of the crypto markets rather than the merge.
“A quick note on the whole merge thing. The merge is supposed to go live on the same day that we get US CPI (consumer price index) print and inflation data. I really think the inflation data is going to guide the market and the correlation that we have with equities will be in the driver’s seat.
If it’s a dovish surprise and if the data is good and we can expect the Fed to soften its stance, then I think ETH and risk assets will rally from that massively.
If it’s hawkish or even neutral to be honest or no change in tone, then I don’t really see a big change in conditions and probably still looks choppy and downtrendy. So I think it’s a bit of a distraction just on the merge as an event.”
Cred also says that traders will likely attribute the rise or fall of the crypto markets to the merge instead of looking at macroeconomic data.
“I think the reason the merge came to the forefront narratively is because the time it got popular was also the time we had that big counter-trend rally in stocks and that supercharged our returns in ETH because all that crypto money was looking for a bounce because of macro and then ETH was the best target for that bounce.
I think it’s a very much similar scenario in this case where inflation data is going to guide markets and if ETH dumps as a result, everyone will say, ‘Oh look well the merge is priced in. It was obvious.’ If ETH doesn’t dump as a result, people will say, ‘The merge wasn’t priced in and it’s just the start.’
I don’t think it’s that much to do with the merge. It’s a false causality there. For my money at least, it’s very much the larger flows, macro trade, that’s in charge.”
At time of writing, Ethereum is swapping hands for $1,534, down nearly 8% on the day.
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Source: https://dailyhodl.com/2022/09/07/one-catalyst-could-trigger-massive-rallies-for-ethereum-and-crypto-this-month-according-to-analyst-and-its-not-the-merge/