The Figures Behind This Unique Serie A Rivalry

We are just four games into the 2022/23 Serie A season, and it’s already derby time in Milan: On Saturday evening, the reigning Serie A champions AC Milan are facing their city rivals Inter Milan in a clash featuring two major Scudetto favorites.

San Siro, the historic, 80,000-seat stadium where both Milan-based clubs play their home games, will be at full capacity for the so-called Derby della Madonnina, one of the most heated rivalries in Italian soccer.

After a decade of dominance by Juventus, AC Milan and Inter have been back in the role of frontrunners in Italy’s latest Scudetto races.

Much of the credit for AC Milan’s recent success is due to Elliott Management Corporation, the U.S. hedge fund that took over the club in 2018 and immediately focused on bringing financial stability. Not only has the size of the club’s debt shrunk over the last years, but revenue has experienced a significant growth: As Deloitte Football Money League 2022 reports, AC Milan recorded €216.3 million ($216.5m) in revenue in 2020/21, which represents an impressive 40% increase from the €154m of the previous year.

AC Milan’s rapid progress under Elliott Management has not gone unnoticed to high-profile investors. Yesterday, an official note by the club announced that New York-based private investment firm RedBird Capital Partners acquired a majority stake in AC Milan in a deal that also sees Yankee Global Enterprises enter the club as a minority owner.

Inter, who have since 2016 been controlled by Chinese company Suning Holdings Group, have likewise seen their revenue grow, bumping from €291.5m in 2019/20 to €331m in 2020/21.

While the Nerazzurri have been experiencing some financial woes, they still rank 14th among the list of the top-20 soccer clubs in the world for revenue generated, per the Deloitte report. What’s more, Transfermarkt currently lists Inter on top of the Serie A table for market value with €611m, taking up a coveted spot that had long been occupied by Juventus.

AC Milan are scheduled to be the hosting side in Saturday’s derby, which means that the Rossoneri will be entitled to a larger portion of the proceeds from ticketing.

This is an important factor considering that this fixture alone usually contributes to more than 10% of the match-day revenue generated by the Milan-based clubs throughout an entire Serie A season, Italian business website Calcio e Finanza explains.

In particular, Saturday’s derby should expect to produce about €4m from gate receipts.

AC Milan are still undefeated this season and are one point shy of their cousins Inter, who sit in third position with a 3-0-1 record after four matches.

To execute their aggressive brand of soccer, the Rossoneri rely on a young, dynamic roster that should line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation. With aging star Zlatan Ibrahimovic still recovering from his injury, the center-forward role should feature 2018 World Cup champion Oliver Giroud, who last year scored the winning brace in a derby that turned out to be a season-defining moment for AC Milan.

For the derby, Inter manager Simone Inzaghi will have to forgo the offensive talent of former Chelsea striker Romelu Lukaku, who will sit out due to a soft-tissue injury. In Inter’s 3-5-2 system, the offensive duo should star Lautaro Martinez next to Bosnia international Edin Dzeko, who is two goals away from reaching the impressive 100-goal mark in his Serie A career.

Expectations around the 177th Milan derby increase when one considers that in this Serie A season, AC Milan and Inter have been picked as the two main Scudetto favorites by many soccer pundits around the world.

Fivethirtyeight, an American website that analyzes winning odds across a variety of sports leagues, assigned Inter the biggest chance of clinching the Italian title (31%), while AC Milan are second in this ranking (20%). And even though the 2022/23 Serie A season is still in the early stages, the two clubs are aware that head-to-head records can end up making a difference in the long run, as they are the deciding tie-breakers in case two teams finish level on points.

The stage is set for a very intense, hard-fought Derby della Madonnina, which will kick off tomorrow at 12pm EST.