The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly

In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we are looking again at the Bitcoin BTCUSD monthly chart now that the August monthly candle has closed and we finally have new data to analyze.

Take a look at the video below for the good, the bad, and the ugly.

VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): September 1, 2022

In yesterday’s video, we focused on the nail-biter of a monthly close we had last night, where bulls were just barely able to hold onto support. With a new monthly candle open, today’s video attempts to see where the crypto market is headed, if the bottom is in, or if we’ll see an extended accumulation phase.

August Aftermath: How Did The Bitcoin Monthly Candle Close?

Bitcoin managed to close above former all-time high resistance turned support. This is the good news of the analysis, as you could imagine. The bad news is that Bitcoin has lost what in the past has been referred to as the Coinbase line.

Trend lines are subjective to a point and there is a chance that a longer-term trend line still held on by a hair.

There are several trend lines to watch currently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Technical Update With Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku, And More

One hopeful note is that the monthly stayed within the lower Bollinger Band. Closing outside it could have led to an extended downmove – much like past uptrends continue to ride the upper band after a strong breakout.

The Ichimoku monthly is also gives bulls more hope, or is simply a delayed look at the inevitable. The tenkan-sen is still above the kijun-sen, and the kijun-sen has started to move upward. 

However, the lines have typically crossed on the monthly before Bitcoin has bottomed, which could suggest the bottom isn’t it. Cloud twists are also especially notable and have in the past indicated a trend change. We won’t see a cloud twist until November 2022 the earliest, suggesting that Bitcoin could spend more time trending down or sideways before we see a greater recovery.

We might not have found a bottom just yet | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Timing A Possible Turning Point In Crypto Winter

The monthly Fisher Transform has yet to flip bullish. The tool is helpful for finding precise turning points in market cycles. The tool continues to descend toward an upward sloping trend line that is yet another signal that Bitcoin have a lengthy bottom like the 2014 and 2015 bear market.

The monthly Relative Strength Index is at the lower boundary of an ongoing downtrend channel. The 2018 bear market bottom barely touched the bottom boundary, while the 2014 and 2015 bear market spent time grinding along it. This monthly close gave us our second touch of the line and could suggest similar behavior to Bitcoin’s first bear market.

Another potentially positive sign is that LMACD has reached a possible upward trend line that could provide support for where momentum begins to turn back upward. The month of September and each month moving forward must turn pink on the histogram to indicate weakening bearish momentum, and the bull trend would be confirmed with the histogram crossing the zero line and turning green.

We also take a closer look at this cyclical behavior in Bitcoin | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Fundamental Case: Is It Crazy To Buy Bitcoin Here?

Even the monthly chart using Bitcoin fundamental tools is looking rather ugly. On monthly timeframes, the hash ribbons have yet to properly issue a buy signal despite the signal triggering on the daily. Bitcoin is also above the lowest point of the cost of production – a metric that analyzes the cost miners incur to produce each BTC on average. 

The 2018 bear market closed a monthly candle below the lowest point of the average. It is worth noting that although there was this key close below it during the last crypto winter, the swing low was already in when it happened. This could suggest that Bitcoin will trade sideways and accumulate at such prices a while longer, but $17,500 could ultimately hold up as the bottom.

We also take a closer look at this cyclical behavior in Bitcoin | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com