World Holds Breath as the Battle For Kherson Rages – Trustnodes

For the first time in six months, it is the Ukrainian defenders finally advancing against the invading forces with the aim of capturing the first city that fell to the Russian army, Kherson.

A country some said would fall within three days, not only stands this autumn dawn, but marches towards the bridge to Crimea, some call it, the trampoline to Donbas, the foothold to liberate all of Ukraine.

Some say 20,000 Russian troops are currently trapped in Kherson with all bridges traversing the vast river, connecting the rest of the Russian held territory to the city, now destroyed.

Some say it is 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers headed towards them, though of course no one knows the actual numbers.

This advance however seems to have been blessed by an act of god itself, with Gorbachev so firing a shot of history as his aim to bring democracy now finds judgment in the might of battle.

A battle for liberalism against Lukoil CEOs ‘accidentally’ falling from 6th floor windows. A battle for the rule of law, in effect, and that means for free trade under the protection of the court of Chancellery.

A battle for accountable governance, so that your president isn’t worth $70 billion, or 5% of your country’s entire GDP, just because he became a president.

And what exactly are the Russian soldiers fighting for on the other side? A Russia where a veil of darkness has descended, and not just due to a war of choice, but a war of choice with no reasonable argument whatever.

And so we wait and watch a replay of liberalism against fascism, where the president gets to be worth $100 billion rather than entrepreneurs like Musk – the latter instead are kicked out like Telegram’s Pavel Durov.

We watch the now colored footage beamed sporadically with suppressive fire and rocket barrages as poems come to life and no longer quite sing but live, through those brave men and presumably some women, the fight for liberty.

And we watch a country, where just standing was a miracle, now assert its right through might to its sovereignty.

The Beginning of the End of War?

The Russian side appears to be somewhat resigned to losing Kherson. Taking the city won’t be easy however, but the Russian collaborator overlooking the city, has run away to Russia.

As you might remember Kherson was ‘given’ to the Russians by the then mayor against central orders to not surrender.

At the time some footage was leaked of a gathering in the city to discuss surrender, with most seemingly being against it and willing to fight.

Yet the mayor gave it up, and now runs away, with the Russian troops in the city no longer having any logistical support.

Unbelievable as it sounds therefore, Ukraine does have a chance to take the city. If they do, narratively at least, it might well feel like that would be the begging of the end of the war because if they can take this city, why can’t they take all the other cities?

As it happens, the western arsenal turns out to be clearly superior to the Russian inventory, in part presumably because their scientists are back to falling from windows or off to excile.

In addition, we shouldn’t forget that just a decade ago the Russian army was in complete and utter shambles, with just a decade before that the country going bankrupt.

While Ukraine has been seen as the underdog therefore, as it is due to it being far smaller than Russia, the Russian soldiers on the ground might have a different view as Ukraine is now better supplied.

Just how much that is the case remains to be seen in the next few days, weeks, and months, but on the civil side as well, while Ukraine is completely united and determined, the picture in Russia is very different.

One very clear sign of that is the passing of Ravil Maganov, the chairman of Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil producer and one of the few Russian companies to criticize the war in Ukraine, who fell out of a hospital window this Thursday.

This is just one of a number of recent civil deaths in Russia, which must have darkened the atmosphere there considerably, and so you’d expect a wider range of views regarding the significant costs for unclear gains.

That public opinion might not have too much influence on the decisions at the Kremlin, but it may have influence on the ground, and it might curtail Putin’s ability to allocate too many resources to the war.

So the Russians might be staring at defeat, and the answer to that can be: fine. They went voluntarily, they can leave ‘voluntarily’ too.

It wouldn’t be the first Russian defeat either. They lost in Libya. They were forced to get out of Georgia. What does it matter to Russians anyway, really?

Do Markets Care?

A failure to capture Kherson or a stall would change little, if anything, on the speculative markets front.

A win however may well change some calculations. A quicker end to the war, and quicker here means a year or two out instead of a decade as speculated by some, would remove some pressure on both oil and gas, not least because such depots would no longer keep blowing up.

That would affect all markets, including interest rates, and thus would cement a speculated bottom on bitcoin.

More medium to long term, as far as commerce is concerned this would be a win for the rule of law, free enterprise without capricious influence, and might mark the beginning of the end of its retreat in superiority globally.

That should be good for growth, both domestic and across the world, and should be good for bitcoin too.

So what happens here does matter as it has the potential to move markets, though perhaps not instantly but more gradually.

However there’s a significant gap between the taking of a city, if that even happens, and the ending of a war.

Yet that this went from three days to collapse, to might Russia even concede defeat and just call it quits, shows that at least for now there’s the potential to speculate of a change in trend.

If nothing else, that might give a good feel to markets since for the first time there’s speculative room to hope we might even win, and if we do win then there would be a new confidence both in Europe and in USA.

For now though we just wait to see if something is actually happening here, or not quite.