Confusion Deepens As The Ukrainian Army Rolls South Toward Kherson

After more than three months of preparation, the Ukrainian army on Monday launched its highly-anticipated counteroffensive in southern Ukraine.

The twin goals: to cut off and destroy the dozens of Russian battalions dug in north of the Dnipro River, then liberate the strategic port city of Kherson from its Russian occupiers.

Photos, videos and official statements in the two days since the purported launch of the counteroffensive seem to confirm that the operation is real, not just propaganda.

But it’s less clear how successful the Ukrainians have been in the first 48 hours of their counteroffensive. Reporting by CNN indicates the Ukrainians have advanced most of the way to Kherson. Other sources are skeptical of CNN’s claim.

CNN on Monday cited an unnamed Ukrainian military source asserting Kyiv’s forces—around three-dozen battalions in a dozen brigades, perhaps 20,000 troops in all—already had liberated four settlements south of the former front line, nominally 15 miles north of Kherson.

Three of the liberated settlements—Novodmytrivka, Arkhanhel’s’ke and Pravdyne—make perfect sense, as all lie near to the front. Ukrainian battalions would’ve needed to advance a mile or less to reach them.

Tomyna Balka, by contrast, is at least six miles from the old line of contact. Merely reaching Tomyna Balka, 12 miles west of Kherson, could require Ukrainian troops to advance for the better part of a day across open, treeless terrain. A risky proposition.

If the Ukrainians have liberated Tomyna Balka, they’re within striking distance of the Russian garrison—part of the 49th Combined Arms Army—in Kherson. Worse for the Russians, a rapid Ukrainian advance that deep into formerly Russian-held territory could threaten the supply lines of Russian forces to the west.

It almost seems too good to be true that the Ukrainians already have liberated Tomyna Balka. Some observers are skeptical. They’ve pointed out that the town of Zolota Balka, 50 miles northeast of Kherson, lies near the old line of contact—and would be a much easier objective for Ukrainian forces.

Perhaps CNN mistook Zolota Balka for Tomyna Balka. If so, Ukrainian battalions might still be 10 miles from Kherson.

But no one disputes they’re making progress, even if slowly. “Ukrainian formations have pushed the front line back some distance in places, exploiting relatively thinly-held Russian defenses,” the U.K. Defense Ministry noted Wednesday.

The balance of power around Kherson could favor the Ukrainians. While on paper the Ukrainian Southern Theater Command and the Russian 49th CAA possess a similar number of battalions—three-dozen each—the Ukrainians’ supply lines are intact, whereas the Russians’ own supply lines are fraying.

To resupply the 49th CAA, the Russians must cross the Inhulets and Dnipro Rivers. Ukraine’s American-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and other deep-strike weapons have damaged or destroyed every major span over these rivers in the Kherson area, forcing the Russians to use pontoon bridges that themselves have come under Ukrainian attack.

Russian forces in Kherson Oblast increasingly are isolated—and that’s having an obvious psychological effect. “We’ve seen a good number of reports talking about the morale of the Russian soldier on that side, you know, in the Kherson pocket,” an unnamed U.S. Defense Department source told reporters Monday.

“Imagine you’re a Russian soldier and, you know, a couple months into it and you’ve been getting hit pretty hard by artillery and HIMARS …,” the Pentagon source added. “And so add that to already bad morale and bad troop numbers … and I’ve got to think that the Ukrainians have seen that, as well, and are working to take advantage of it.”

Factoring in logistics and morale, it’s possible the Ukrainian army has the advantage in southern Ukraine. And now the Ukrainians have the momentum, too. If they haven’t already liberated Tomyna Balka, they might do so soon.