Josh Hader Trade Makes Sense In Hindsight, But Can The Milwaukee Brewers Compete?

There is always at least one surprise move at the trade deadline. Sometimes it’s a blockbuster deal, a guy who doesn’t get dealt despite expectations that he’ll be on the block, and sometimes it’s the guy like Josh Hader, who seems like an obvious choice to keep on a competitive team’s roster, who ends up on the move.

It was the Brewers trading Hader to the Padres that surprised many at the August 2 trade deadline. Both teams are competitive — in fact, it looks like they might face each other in a wild card game in October — but Milwaukee chose to ship out its best closer in years anyway.

With the benefit of almost a month’s hindsight, it seems like the Brewers made the right choice.

Since being traded, Hader has pitched just 4 2/3 innings for the Padres. He has allowed 12 runs and given up 12 hits. Against the Royals on Sunday, Hader gave up six earned runs in one-third of an inning. He has a 23.14 ERA since joining the Padres.

This is not to suggest that the Brewers saw struggles of this degree coming. Up until the trade deadline, Hader had 29 saves for Milwaukee, and though he had a 4.24 ERA in a Brewers uniform, Hader’s peripheral numbers were not too far out of line with where they had been in previous years. Trading him had some to do with his contract status; Hader signed a $11 million arbitration deal for the season and was headed to his final year in arbitration next season. For the Brewers, this was a chance to avoid going to arbitration again or working out a potential extension.

Still, the move was a shock to many in the Brewers locker room.

“There was a shock factor to it,” pitcher Eric Lauer told reporters. “Everybody was taken aback by it a little bit. As far as who we have in the clubhouse and what we have here, I don’t think we’re in any worse position to win as many games as we should. The only thing I can think of was, from the top down it seemed like there was a weird behind-the-scenes message that was sent that a lot of people didn’t jive with.

“It didn’t send us the right message from the upstairs people trying to say, like, ‘We’re doing this and we’re trying to put you guys in the best position and we’re trying to win right now with you guys.’ It seemed more of a, ‘We’re trying to develop for the future.’”

General manager David Stearns told reporters the move was about giving his team as many “bites of the apple” as they could, meaning as many chances to reach the playoffs as possible. Conventional wisdom teaches that getting to the postseason as often as a team can will inevitably increase the likelihood that they will get hot at the right time and win a World Series. The Brewers have been in the playoffs every year since 2018, but they have only one World Series appearance (1982) in franchise history.

The question for Milwaukee going forward from the Hader trade is whether or not they are in a better position in the grander scheme of things. The Brewers were locked with the Cardinals for the division lead early in the season, but as things turn toward the final weeks, St. Louis has increased its lead.

Is Milwaukee situated to compete? Going into this week’s games, they are six behind the Cardinals for the National League Central lead but just 1.5 games out of a wild card spot. They started off very hot in April, going 15-7 and kept up a 17-12 record in May, but since then things have cooled off. With just a few games left in August, they’re 10-14 this month.

Their September/early October schedule contains a mixture of series against the top and bottom of the standings, but what is most important is the number of head-to-head matchups with the Cardinals. The two teams face each other just four more times: September 13 and 14 in St. Louis and September 27 and 28 at home. That means the Brewers will need to capitalize on winning their other matchups.

In 2018, the Brewers started September in third place. Right where they are now. That year they were five games behind the Cubs for first place on September 1. The Brewers went 19-7 that month and ultimately ousted the Cubs in game 163 for the division title. They went on the National League Championship Series and missed a World Series berth by one game.

Past precedent indicates that this team is capable of doing that kind of thing again, but their time is getting short to get on a roll. Trading Hader may have been painful, but it increasingly looks like the right move, and a necessary one for a team trying to get another bite out of the apple.