Why ‘Halloween Ends’ Will (Also) Open In Theaters And On Peacock

What’s good for Halloween Kills is good for Halloween Ends. Universal just announced, via a Jamie Lee Curtis monologue video, that the third and final chapter of Blumhouse’s ‘Laurie vs. Michael trilogy’ will get the same hybrid/dual release as its predecessor. Halloween Ends is still opening theatrically on October 14, but now it will also be available concurrently on Peacock. That’s not a massive surprise since Halloween Kills still opened with $49 million in its debut weekend last October and still grossed $92 million domestic and $131 million worldwide on a $20 million budget despite being available on Comcast’s streaming platform.

That was a domestic drop of 42% (sans inflation) from Halloween’s $159 million domestic total. We can credit poor reviews, inferior buzz, less general audience curiosity and the dual release strategy that cut down on repeat business. Even with all of those factors, it had a better hold, percentage-wise, than Halloween II ($25.5 million in 1981) compared to Halloween ($47 million in 1978) and Halloween: Resurrection ($30 million in 2002) compared to Halloween: H20 ($55 million in 1998). Its retention was essentially tied with Rob Zombie’s Halloween II ($33.4 million in 2009) compared to his 2007 Halloween remake ($58.3 million).

Halloween Kills had a better hold from its overperforming predecessor than any “part two of a Laurie Strode/Michael Myers” launch or relaunch. To the extent that Halloween: The Return of Michael Myers was a soft reboot (it was essentially Halloween: H10 and grossed $17.8 million in 1988), Halloween Kills’ retention was even pretty close to the 35% drop for Halloween V: The Revenge of Michael Myers ($11.6 million). Barring rave reviews and white-hot buzz, I’d expect a drop like Maze Runner: The Death Cure (-29% from Scorch Trials) or Fifty Shades Freed (-12% from Fifty Shades Darker) for a $65-$80 million domestic finish.

I guess Halloween Ends could get a finale bump and play like The Curse of Michael Myers (which jumped up 35% from Revenge of Michael Myers six years later) for a $125 million domestic cume, but when adjusted for inflation that’s still ‘only’ a 15% jump. Even that would mean $106 million domestic and would be pretty surprising. Universal isn’t risking much by doing the dual release. The likes of Halloween Kills and Marry Me ($49 million worldwide on a $23 million budget) thus far show that Universal can milk both respective revenue streams without kneecapping one or the other.

We’ll see how this plays out, especially as Halloween Ends could be the first $30-$40 million opener since Bullet Train unless the reissue of Avatar overperforms a few weeks prior. Sure, Comcast is taking a few bucks from theatrical with this strategy. Still, the multiple revenue streams (especially PVOD) are why Universal and Focus can justify producing and releasing films like Ambulance, The Northman, Beast and Honk for Jesus Save Your Soul (also getting the hybrid treatment on September 2) for theaters in the first place. The company that shattered the theatrical window with Trolls: World Tour is still mostly behaving like an old-school movie studio.