Nottingham Forest’s Spending Is The Cost Of Entry Into The Premier League

With less than two weeks left until the transfer window closes, the second biggest spenders in the Premier League are newly-promoted Nottingham Forest.

They’ve reportedly spent in the region of $150 million, and will likely make one or two more additions before the window closes.

But there are several reasons why they can afford to spend so much on transfer fees, and why they need to spend so much.

At the start of the summer, Nottingham Forest effectively didn’t have a team. Four of their starting line-up in the Championship play-off final were on loan, and while their starting eleven players were strong enough to get promoted, the lack of squad depth was such that central midfielder Jack Colback had to spend much of the season playing as a wingback.

Premier League teams this season are allowed to bring on five substitutes and name nine players on the substitutes’ bench meaning squad depth is more important than ever, so with only five or six players in the team that are at the level required to compete in the Premier League, Forest needed a lot of signings to give them a competitive squad. Injuries to new signings Omar Richards and Moussa Niakhate show how vital that squad depth is.

Premier League quality players don’t come cheap though, so even though Forest’s largest transfer fee has been $30 million for Morgan Gibbs-White, a relatively modest amount by Premier League standards, the sheer number of signings adds up to a large total spend.

But Forest’s need to sign so many players is part of the reason they can afford to spend so much.

While their spending in the Championship in the past few seasons was higher than average, it was a drop in the ocean by Premier League standards. The Championship’s financial fair play rules allow for smaller losses than the Premier League, which means Forest can afford a larger loss this season while still complying with FFP rules. Much of their spending will be covered by the extra TV revenues they get from the Premier League.

Transfer fees are also spread out over the length of a player’s contract. The players used in the play-off final cost Forest less than $10 million and the transfer fees this summer will be paid for over the next four or five years.

Other clubs can’t spend so much because they are still paying the transfer fees from previous signings, which are spread out over the length of the contract.

Since Bournemouth’s first promotion to the Premier League under Eddie Howe, they have a net transfer spend of over $100 million based on the fees quoted on transfermarkt. This earlier spending means they had a stronger base than Forest this summer, but with that comes a full squad of players on Premier League wages and transfer fees.

Fulham have a net spend since their 2018 promotion of around $200 million, and Brighton and Hove Albion, often seen as the paragons of good spending habits, have a net spend of around $150 million in transfer fees since arriving in the top flight.

Once the inflation in soccer transfer fees is accounted for, those net spends go even higher. That’s not to mention the heavy spending by Aston Villa and Leeds United since their recent promotions.

Put it simply, the amount Forest are spending is what it costs to build a team capable of competing in the Premier League. It’s just rather than do it over several seasons, Forest have done it in a matter of weeks.

Getting so many new players to gel can be tough, but Forest have mitigated this somewhat by having a manager who has experience in getting players to play well together in a short space of time, and by making signings who already know people at the club either from playing together for their national teams like Wales and Nigeria or at club level for Manchester United and Huddersfield Town.

All transfers involve an element of risk, but Forest’s record signing, Morgan Gibbs-White has played under manager Steve Cooper before for England Under-17s and Swansea City, which increases the chances of the signing being a success.

None of this guarantees Forest will stay up. Three teams must get relegated, and with most teams spending huge amounts over the past few seasons, inevitably one or two teams who spent a huge amount of money will get relegated.

But as most of Forest’s bigger transfer fees were spent on young players with potential, strong individual performances in the Premier League should increase their values. When Bournemouth were relegated, they sold their one-time record signing Nathan Ake to Manchester City for roughly double what they bought him for. Should Forest’s new signings perform well, then the club should recoup quite a bit of their summer spending in the coming seasons regardless of which league they are playing in.