Preview And Prediction For The Rematch

Uh-oh, not good. Anthony Joshua is tossing around excuses just a few days before his heavyweight title rematch against Oleksandr Usyk.

Joshua said he would’ve “smoked” Usyk in their first fight if the Ukrainian weren’t a southpaw, and he also called lefties “a nightmare” to box. Excuse me, Anthony, won’t Usyk be a southpaw in the rematch? Of course, and so the nightmare continues.

If Joshua is wary of Usyk, nobody could fault him. In their first fight almost a year ago, Usyk battered Joshua before a sell-out crowd at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to capture the WBA, WBO, IBF and IBO belts. Usyk threw an exclamation point onto the fight when he wobbled Joshua during the closing moments.

Their rematch is set for Saturday in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and Joshua will look to recapture the gold and also start rehabbing his reputation as one of the premier heavyweights on the planet. Joshua’s knockout loss to Andy Ruiz in June 2019 showed that he was flawed — that he could be hit and hurt. And his loss to Usyk showed that a masterful boxer can fluster him to the point of defeat.

But let’s dissect the rematch to see what both fighters must do to win:

What Joshua needs to do?

Joshua must jab often and with conviction. During his last fight, he flicked lazy jabs at Usyk. He likely did that as a timing mechanism for his powerful right hand. But Usyk is too slick, and he timed Joshua’s pawing jab to set up his own stiff jab counter.

If Joshua establishes a strong jab in the rematch, he will have a better chance at controlling the fight and keeping Usyk at range. And that means he’ll boost his odds of landing his biggest weapon: his straight right hand. The more opportunities Joshua creates for his right hand, the better chance he has to upsetting Usyk.

Joshua cannot — and should not — box strategically. In their last fight, that’s exactly what Joshua did, and he got schooled by Usyk, who is a sweet-science genius. Joshua should turn the rematch into a brawl in which he can use his 20-pound weight advantage to smother Usyk’s inside game and also tie him up and bully him.

One thing to note: Joshua has changed trainers from Robert McCracken to Robert Garcia ahead of the rematch. Garcia is a brilliant boxing mind — and, no doubt, will enforce a better jab from Joshua this go-around and also implore him to use his weight advantage.

What Usyk needs to do?

The biggest thing Usyk needs to do is not fall in love with the concept of knocking out Joshua early. That urge may be there for Usyk, considering how their last fight ended with Joshua rocked and on the ropes as the final bell sounded.

The more Usyk presses for a KO, the more he can get buzzed by Joshua’s right hand. So Usyk needs to remain who he is: a patient high-level tactician who is satisfied with simply outboxing an opponent.

If Usyk uses his beloved Ukraine as motivation, he will be unstoppable. Usyk returned to his homeland following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and joined a territorial defense battalion, promising he was armed and willing to kill. So a little heavyweight boxing match must seem quaint after defending his country and pledging to kill Russian invaders.

Prediction

Joshua isn’t a complex riddle to solve, but Usyk is with his superior offense, superior defense and probably superior chin. So, as he did in their first bout, Usyk will wait for Joshua to make his mistakes and make him pay. But there will be no decision this time. Usyk — with Ukraine in his heart — will get more aggressive as the fight grinds on and win by knockout in the 11th round.