Russia’s Artillery Is Wearing Out, And Blowing Up

Russian artillery batteries in Ukraine appear to be running low on ammunition as Ukrainian rockets blow up more and more supply dumps.

And that’s not the only problem Russian gunners are having as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its fifth month. Their artillery tubes are exploding, too.

Photos that appeared online in recent days depict two Russian guns with what Mark Hertling, a retired U.S. Army general who commanded forces in Europe, described as “banana-peeled” barrels.

That is, split and bent-back after bursting mid-use. According to Hertling, the banana-peeled tubes of one towed gun and one self-propelled gun are evidence the Russians are wearing out their artillery pieces—and not repairing them.

“Here’s what happens when you don’t do maintenance,” Hertling tweeted. “You can bet there were associated casualties.”

Artillery failures are just one data point in a wider set of indications that the Russian army is worn out, and getting wearier, following months of intensive operations aimed at capturing the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.

The Russians and their separatist and mercenary allies finally seized Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in early July. The Ukrainian battalions that defended the cities withdrew west in good order, essentially trading space for time—albeit at great cost in people and equipment.

Time is one thing the Kremlin doesn’t have in abundance. The Russian army mobilized around 150,000 troops—85 percent of its front-line force—for the war in Ukraine. After losing at least 15,000 soldiers killed and several times that number wounded, the army is exhausted.

It’s not for no reason that the Kremlin is hastily raising scores of volunteer battalions, training new recruits for as little as a month then speeding them to the front. Russian leaders must make good their losses, fast, in order to forestall a more forceful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south.

And it’s not for no reason that Russian artillery is exploding. Front-line formations are in a bad way. The big guns that support them are in a bad way, too.

Foremost, gunners are struggling to get ammo. The Ukrainian army has been aiming its new American-made, GPS-guided rockets at Russian supply dumps. The Kremlin’s logisticians are pulling supplies back, away from the front. As far as 60 miles in some cases—beyond the range of Ukraine’s best M30/31 rockets.

But longer supply lines—three times as long, in places—mean slower delivery. Truck battalions can’t keep up with the artillery batteries’ usual demand for shells. Analysts scrutinizing data from NASA’s fire-detecting satellites have noted a sharp decline in artillery barrages in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks.

Maintenance backlogs could contribute to this artillery slow-down. Artillery tubes wear out with heavy use and even can shatter. Crews must eventually replace a tube or risk an explosion.

How long a particular artillery barrel lasts depends on the frequency and intensity of use, the power of the propellant and other factors. U.S. Army gunners tend to replace their barrels after 1,500 rounds or so.

It’s safe to assume the Russian army, which rolled into Ukraine without adequate logistics, is struggling to replace artillery tubes on time. Photos of peeled-back tubes simply represent perception catching up to reality.

That reality? “Russia is in dire shape and losing,” according to Hertling.