Wakanda Forever’ Trailer Signals End Of Marvel Phase 4

Right on time, and just under four months until the November 11, 2022 release date, we’ve got the first trailer for Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Offhand, it looks like a visual dynamo, with some amusing visual similarities to Avatar. Yes, that’s a compliment, as it wasn’t entirely a coincidence that Black Panther was the biggest-grossing non-sequel since Avatar nine years earlier. Both offered up fantastical worlds, regal protagonists and of-the-moment politics that represent the right messages at the right time. So it’s a little bemusing that Black Panther 2, Avatar 2 and Aquaman 2 will all open within a few months of each other. But I digress.

Yes, the film explicitly acknowledges the offscreen death of T’Challa, a grim necessity due to Chadwick Boseman’s death from cancer just under two years ago. Paul Walker died halfway through Furious 7, but A) he had already shot at least some of the film and B) the franchise was previously a two-hander between Walker and Vin Diesel. Heath Ledger was a supporting character in The Dark Knight, who had already finished shooting his role as The Joker when he died in January of 2008. Carrie Fisher had completed work on The Last Jedi when she too died unexpectedly in December of 2016. I cannot think of comparable circumstances in crafting a big-budget theatrical franchise sequel without the title character.

Whether Marvel and Disney should have recast T’Challa (which, save for the specific circumstances of the actor and the character, would have been no different than Val Kilmer subbing for Michael Keaton in Batman Forever), what’s done is done. We now have a Black Panther sequel without the character who was “the Black Panther” last time out. The “good news” is that Black Panther 2 would have been a monster hit under any circumstances, and it should still be one this November. We’ll see if it earns as much domestically and worldwide as the first film ($700 million domestic and $1.346 billion worldwide, including $105 million from China).

Even a drop comparable to Fallen Kingdom from Jurassic World (and without China or Russia) still gets it to $448 million domestic and $905 million global. I can’t imagine it not standing alongside Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water among the year’s biggest movies. The film is essential to the MCU, beyond obvious reasons. It’s the one that had a massive fanbase of moviegoers who otherwise wouldn’t care that much about Marvel. We know this because it earned more than three out of four Avengers movies worldwide and more than any Star Wars movie save for The Force Awakens in unadjusted domestic earnings, outgrossing every solo superhero movie, including The Dark Knight.

The second Black Panther movie will surely appeal to audiences who otherwise clocked out or became less “gotta see every Marvel thing” after Avengers: Endgame. Depending on how they lean into the whole “Wakanda is a fantastical place” element, although Letitia Wright’s Shuri is no longer quite a “Disney Princess,” they may have a repeat of November 2019. If you recall, Frozen II was both the pre-Thanksgiving fantasy action biggie and the Thanksgiving season family-friendly juggernaut. Yes, I know Strange World opens on Thanksgiving, but I digress.

Kevin Feige just announced that Black Panther 2 will be the end of “Phase Four,” with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania kicking off “Phase Five” early next year. I don’t know if that was the initial plan, but it does seem amusingly convenient that Marvel can just say, “That phase that wasn’t quite as well received is officially over, and it’s ending with a film that you’ll probably all love.” Granted, Covid delays and shifting sentiments, along with fan-driven discourse that seemed to emphasize Easter Eggs and cameos above the actual movie being shown, didn’t help.

Phase Four was about introducing younger (and more diverse) versions of existing legacy characters, and in that sense it may be a long-term success. So there is a certain irony that it will end with a “new” Black Panther, even if it was mostly due to unfortunate circumstances. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will open on November 11, 2022. As always, we’ll see.