Is There Anything Particularly Unusual About The 2022 Hurricane Season So Far?

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is in full swing, and most meteorology experts expect another active season like the previous two years. There are already some things that have caught my eye. However, is there anything particularly unusual or out of the ordinary about the season so far? Let’s explore this question from a couple of different perspectives.

The next storm would be called “Danielle.” Is it unusually early to have the “C” storm (Colin) by July 4th? Yes. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the third named storm is typically not expected until around August 3rd. In fact, the second named storm of the year, from a climatological lens, does not typically happen until around July 17th. In the Atlantic Basin, the first hurricane is usually expected around August 11th. From this perspective, the season is off to an early start compared to the climatology over the most recent 30-year period.

As I write this, the tropical Atlantic basin is fairly quite. According to NOAA, an outbreak of Saharan Dust is hindering any significant development. However, there is something else a bit anomalous according to tropical meteorology expert Dr. Michael Ventrice, a meteorological software engineer with DFW. He told me in a message, “The biggest anomaly I’m seeing right now is the abnormally hot water in the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a pocket of 30C+ ocean temperatures.” That’s really hot water for this time of year. Additionally, the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are the typical breeding spots for tropical cyclones in the early part of the season. Ventrice went on to say, “If you remove the atmosphere out of the equation, this ocean state does promote risk for rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones prior to landfall across the Gulf States.”

Dr. Ventrice also pointed out something to me about the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is explained at this link. He said, “ The suppressed phase of the MJO will be propagating over Africa and the Indian Ocean over the next few weeks, which will quiet down the Atlantic basin.” He cautioned, however, that there are indications that the active phase of the MJO could push back across Africa and the Indian Ocean during the front half of August. He warned, “This could lead to a burst of Atlantic Hurricane activity during the 2nd-3rd week of August.”

Stu Ostro is Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Channel. He has also noticed a few curious idiosyncrasies this season, but he says there is nothing that jumps out to him as particularly meteorologically significant. He pointed out that both Alex and Bonnie were designated as Potential Tropical Cyclones (PTC) for a particularly long time before being named. The PTC designation is a relatively new tool used by the National Hurricane Center to initiate risk communication. Ostro also noted that Bonnie maintained its low-level circulation and thus name as it crossed into the Pacific.

Ostro was one of the first meteorologists to pick up on “Colin” before it was actually given a name near coastal Carolinas and Georgia. It was a quick spin-up system near the warm Gulf Stream current that certainly can happen. I saw a few meteorologists on social media complaining about the storm receiving a name because it was not causing “headline grabbing winds”, but I believe that it was warranted. Noted broadcast meteorologist Richard “Heatwave” Berler made an excellent point when he tweeted that satellite-based scatterometer data was significant in helping to nail the storm circulation of Tropical Storm Colin. With so many people at the coast for the July 4th weekend, naming the storm, in my view, helped with messaging for dangerous currents and other hazards.

Ostro makes another important point. He messaged, “PTCs are a relatively new designation (if it had always been around, might there have been many other such cases?); crossovers from the Caribbean to east Pac have happened before; and there have been other quick spin-ups near the Southeast coast (and whether or not to designate 96L as Tropical Storm Colin involved at least some human subjectivity).” Ostro also added a little weather geekery into his message and said, “The main thing that caught my eye meteorologically was how, for a while, convectively active the African Easterly Waves (AEWs) were from Africa across the tropical Atlantic so early in the season.”

University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy pointed out this oddity. He wrote, “Agatha went from the Pacific and reformed in the Atlantic as Alex. Then Bonnie went from the Atlantic and survived intact to remain Bonnie in the Pacific.” He went on to add that, “Crossovers aren’t too common to begin with, so having both types occur almost immediately in the season is quite bizarre.”

Bonnie was also a bit unique in how far south it formed and tracked before crossing over into the Pacific. The storm scraped northern portions of South America before affecting Central America. Stu Ostro circled back to me and said, “Apparently this is the first time a system (Bonnie has been a tropical storm on the Atlantic/Caribbean side and then become a hurricane over the Pacific, much less a Cat 3.” He cautioned on what to read into these oddities by saying, “So I suppose that gives Bonnie more of a “oddity” nature, though I’m still not sure whether there’s any more to be read into that vs. it just being interesting but random.”

I think Andy Hazleton probably captures the big picture that many of the aforementioned experts also alluded to. Hazleton, an assistant scientist at the University of Miami and NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, wrote, “I wish I could give you something interesting but honestly nothing really jumps out at me. Pretty climatologically typical development (and now the quiet period) so far.” My own interpretation is that there have been some quirks and early activity but nothing outside of the boundaries of what experts have seen. However, it would be irresponsible for me to ignore that climate change is certainly associated with warming sea surface temperatures (see Ventrice’s comment earlier). We have also seen two of the most active hurricane seasons on record (2020 and 2021). My point here is to note that natural variability and a “recency” bias during the satellite in naming quick spin-up or smaller storms are real things. However, neither of those things refutes the literature that the DNA of climate change is likely now affecting tropical cyclone activity.