It’s Time To Set John Collins Loose On The NBA

John Collins is going through the trade rumor mill for the second year in a row, with the 6’9 forward being more likely than ever before to finally get moved, according to Marc Stein.

Regardless of where Collins goes – and several teams interested – it’s imperative that his new team leans into his skills to get the most out of him.

Scoring upside

Collins is one of the most efficient scorers at the forward position in the league, showcasing an ability to dive to the basket off rolls, step back to hit three-pointers, and convert at the free throw line. Over the course of his first five seasons, Collins has converted at a ridiculous 55.9% from the floor, including 37.6% from range, and 77.9% from the line, averaging 16.5 points and 8.3 rebounds.

For a player 6’9, those numbers are extremely intriguing, especially when factoring in his superb athleticism, which makes him an obvious candidate to benefit from an elite playmaker.

Right, about that..

Collins is indeed playing next to an elite playmaker in Trae Young, yet he’s receiving a modest 11.9 shot attempts per game, a number that should be closer to the high teens. How much of that is related to Young being reluctant to use him? Considering that Collins himself has voiced frustration with Atlanta’s offense, it would appear as a factor, even if the magnitude is generally unknown.

It’s also worth noting that among Young’s passing targets, Collins ranks just fourth in received passes per game by the All-Star point guard. Kevin Huerter (9.9), Bogdan Bogdanovic (8.4), and De’Andre Hunter (7.6) all rank ahead of Collins. Out of all them, Collins is by far the most efficient when receiving a pass from Young, converting at 54.5% from the field.

That passing number not only seems low, it seems unacceptable given the skill set of Collins. While that could be the result of decisions made by the coaching staff, at not necessarily Young, something isn’t being done right when you consistently fail to get your second-best offensive player involved, especially one as flexible as Collins.

This is all to say, that any team that ends up trading for Collins will need to make a concerted effort in making him the end target of a play, and allowing him the chance to become a high-level scorer.

Best fit

It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact place that would suit Collins. Some might argue he’s already there, but as explained above, sometimes things just don’t work out, despite having the players in place.

The Sacramento Kings, picking fourth and expected to select Jaden Ivey out of Purdue, already have De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell in place at the guard slots, and could use a big time front-court scorer with some athletic ability. Atlanta would probably welcome the fourth pick, but would the Kings benefit in a trade centered around those two assets?

After trading for Domantas Sabonis at the NBA Trade Deadline, it’s fair to question if Collins would get enough shots in Sacramento, as Sabonis is both a shot-taker, and a playmaker. Can the two co-exist offensively, knowing both struggle on the other end of the floor?

The deal shouldn’t be dismissed entirely out of hand, as there is merit in building an explosive offensive team. That could be enough to get the Kings back into the playoffs for the first since 2006, which seems to be the target for ownership. Plus, with Fox and Mitchell in the fold, there should be ample opportunity to run, and get a significant amount of shots in transition for Collins.

Alternatively, one could simply not overthink it and easily reach the conclusion that the best fit is in Texas with the San Antonio Spurs, assuming they’re willing to make a deal involving the 9th overall pick.

The Spurs are heavy on guards, their offense relies on heavy ball-movement, and they love getting shots near the basket. Essentially, injecting them with a tornado like Collins would be much welcomed, and the organization would finally be able to unload some of the scoring burden from the perimeter, allowing guards – Dejounte Murray in particular, to be more selective with his shot-selection.

Murray, who averaged 9.2 assists this season, would likewise get an assist in being able to play in an offense that is less predictable. Most opposing defenses knew he’d be heavily involved in most actions, and oftentimes would be the guy to take tough shots. With an outlet like Collins to play off of, Murray would also be able to turn on the jets after initial screen action, with Collins popping behind the three-point line. That takes away a help defender, and if it doesn’t, it’s an easy kick-out from Murray as an immediate response.

Collins is truly a plug-and-play scorer, but teams interested do have to understand they have to commit to him as a high-volume scorer. Otherwise, there’s simply no point.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.