Determining What T.J. Warren Is Worth Will Be Difficult For NBA Teams

Wing is the most in-demand position in the NBA. So, naturally, a solid defending wing who scored 15.5 points per game and shot 53% from the field would seem to be a valuable player.

Those are T.J. Warren’s numbers from his last season, and the Pacers won 75% of the games they played with Warren available. But the positives end there — those numbers aren’t from the 2021-22 season, they are from the 2020-21 campaign — Warren missed all of the most recent NBA season with foot issues.

And those stats? They are from just a quartet of games. The North Carolina State product played in the first four outings during the 2020-21 season before having surgery. He has not played in a game since — the last time Warren suited up was December 29, 2020, 538 days ago.

So while Warren was once a force in the league, he has not shown it in 18 months. And That’s what makes his upcoming free agency — his four-year contract expires at the end of this month — so complicated. Will teams be willing risk using significant financial resources on a forward who has played in four games since NBA bubble action concluded? Or will they be afraid to make that commitment?

Warren was a full participant during Pacers practices in March of this past season, which may gives teams confidence that he is healthy enough to play when the 2022-23 season begins. “T.J. Warren has worked incredibly hard over the past 14 months to get to this point — a full participant in on-court activity with his teammates — all while navigating the many challenges that accompany this type of injury,” Pacers President of Basketball Operations Kevin Pritchard said at the time. But even if Warren is available to play in games now, it isn’t easy to predict how effective he will be after such a long period of recovery — or if he will need to miss any more time as his foot acclimates to game action.

So how will teams approach Warren with contract offers this summer? That’s tough to say, and it will likely depend on the team-building situation of the franchise offering Warren a deal.

Had he been healthy, Warren could likely have fetched a deal worth roughly $20 million per year this offseason — perhaps one slightly richer than what Evan Fournier signed with the New York Knicks last summer (four years, $73 million). Now, it’s hard to imagine him getting that much guaranteed money per season unless his next deal is short in length — it doesn’t make sense for a team to make that commitment.

What does make sense, though, is that Warren could be a high-reward signing, even with his risks. If he plays close to the level he reached prior to his foot ailments, he is a starter quality player at an important position.

Teams will be tasked with weighing those factors. Two players who had lengthy absences in recent seasons, Thomas Bryant and Spencer Dinwiddie, provide examples for the paths Warren’s post-injury play could take.

Dinwiddie’s recent campaign will be what decision makers hope can happen to Warren. After tearing his ACL in late 2020, Dinwiddie returned this past season and was still a solid player with a similar skillset. After being traded to Dallas, Dinwiddie played some of the best basketball of his career.

Bryant, meanwhile, missed over a year with a knee injury and returned in early 2022. His scoring average dropped by nearly half as his play declined in multiple areas of the game, he never quite looked like his former self for Washington.

If Warren can follow Dinwiddie’s path, he is worth a pricey deal. If he can’t, and his next season looks more like Bryant’s 2021-22, then his next contract could be an overpay. That’s what makes his free agency so complicated.

A few players that were in similar situations to Warren’s have signed contracts recently in free agency. A noteworthy deal from last summer is the one that center Zach Collins signed with the San Antonio Spurs.

Collins signed a three-year contract with San Antonio that totaled $22 million. But only $10.6 million of the agreement was guaranteed to Collins at signing — $7 million in the first year and $3.6 million over the rest of the contract. Since Collins missed most of the two seasons prior to agreeing to that deal with various ankle injuries, the Spurs wanted to make sure they didn’t guarantee the young big man too much money in case he was ineffective or unable to play. But they still had to give him enough money to entice him to sign the contract.

Warren will be in a similar situation, though he is a much more proven player and plays a more in-demand position. Could the Pacers’ wing get a similar deal at higher dollar amounts? Doubling all of those digits may make sense for the 28-year old forward, for example.

There are other ways to make Warren’s contract balanced in a way that is both fair to him and his new team. Jonathan Isaac signed a contract with Orlando that featured incentives based on games played — if Isaac missed time in the first season of the deal with certain injuries, money in future seasons of the contract became guaranteed for lesser totals. That’s exactly what ended up happening, Isaac hasn’t played since August of 2020 and now only $23.6 million of the $52.2 million remaining on his contract is guaranteed to him. Warren’s next contract could contain similar language that requires him to play in a certain number of games to have his contract become more, or fully, guaranteed.

A third way that Warren’s next contract could have complexity is via bonuses, and more specifically, unlikely bonuses. Unlikely bonuses in a contract are bonuses that pay out if a player achieves a specified statistical or team success accomplishment that was not reached in the prior season. What makes them a valuable resource for a franchise to consider in T.J. Warren’s next contract is that they do not count against the salary cap at the time of signing (though they do have to fit into a teams salary cap space).

Kelly Olynyk inked a contract with the Miami Heat in 2017 that featured an unlikely bonus for minutes played. The Canadian forward had never played more than 1,538 minutes in a season prior to signing with the Heat, but Miami put a bonus in Olynyk’s contract worth $1 million that would pay out if he played 1,700 minutes in a season. Since the power forward did not reach that minutes played threshold the season prior to signing that contract, that $1 million bonus did not count against the salary cap for Miami until the bonus was achieved. Olynyk did reach that benchmark in 2017-18.

A Warren contract could feature alike clauses. 15% of the yearly value in any contract can be comprised of unlikely bonuses, so there could be a sizeable bonuses in Warren’s next deal that pay out if he plays a certain number of minutes or games — likely a number that would be negotiated with his team. If Warren stays healthy and plays enough, his next team would be happy to pay him a bonus since he proved to be in good health. If he misses more time, then his organization could save some money payments — both in terms of spending and against the salary cap.

Most of the aforementioned bells and whistles — unique guarantee structures, injury insurances, and unlikely bonuses — are unique and uncommon in NBA contracts. What is common, though, are team options and player options. Team options allow a team to decline, or opt-out, of a contract after a specified numbers of seasons. A player option is essentially identical, but the player makes the choice instead. A player option in Warren’s contract could allow him to return to free agency sooner after showcasing healthy play, while a team option would make a team feel better about the length of Warren’s contract in case he doesn’t return to his prior form. Warren will likely want a player option, while any front office will likely want to put a team option in the NC State product’s next contract. If there is an option, which type it is may depend on how rich the deal is in terms of guaranteed money.

There are more salary cap intricacies, such as descending cap hits and sign-and-trades, that make envisioning Warren’s next contract extremely difficult. It’s rare that such a talented player misses so much action right before they become a free agent, and the situation makes it nearly impossible to predict how much, or in what structure, T.J. Warren gets paid this summer.

Teams with salary cap space this offseason (such as the Pacers) may be willing to give Warren a richer deal in the first year of his next contract in exchange for lighter guarantees and team-friendly options in future seasons. Over-the-cap teams that can only offer Warren the non-taxpayer mid-level exception in 2021-22, a deal that would start at a maximum value just over $10 million, may be forced to get creative with how the contract structure looks with guaranteed money in future seasons. The situation of the franchise acquiring Warren will go a long way in determining what type of deal he gets.

The free agency circumstance that T.J. Warren is in is unique, and there are many elements involved. Any front office in a position to take a risk may be willing to ink the forward to a contract, but negotiating with so many factors at play could be challenging. Most teams in the NBA could use a player like Warren — the question is, how many of them will be interested in paying up for his services after over 500 days on the sidelines?