Yankees And Mets Seem Headed To Subway Series Showdown This Fall

With both New York teams leading their respective divisions by comfortable margins in the middle of June, talk of a 2022 Subway Series is gaining credibility quickly.

The Yankees and Mets have met in the World Series only once – 22 years ago – and finished first in the same season only once, when both went 97-65 in 2006 but did not reach the final round.

Since divisional play began in 1969, the Yankees have won 19 American League East crowns while the Mets have won six in the National League East. But neither team has won one since 2015, when the NL East crown went to the Mets.

Surviving baseball’s labyrinth of playoffs – potentially including a wild-card game, division series, and championship series – the only year both survived for the final round was the year historians call Y2K. The Mets won the NL wild-card that year.

When New York had three teams, the Yankees and Brooklyn Dodgers won pennants in the same year seven times, the Yankees and Giants did it six times, and all three teams grabbed a piece of the pennant pie once – in a showdown scenario decided by Bobby Thomson’s “shot heard ‘round the world” during a Dodgers-Giants pennant playoff.

In none of those years, however, was the playoff situation such an unpredictable puzzle. Teams won pennants and went directly to the World Series without passing GO or collecting $200.

That’s why it’s virtually impossible for any club, no matter how powerful, to even approach the feat of the 1949-53 Yankees, who won five consecutive world championships.

It’s hard enough for two teams in the same city to finish first in the same season without wandering through the maze of qualifying playoffs. Consider the fact that there has never been a Fall Classic featuring the two Los Angeles teams, the Dodgers and Angels. The two Chicago teams, the White Sox and Cubs, haven’t met since 1906. There was one St. Louis City Series between the Cardinals and Browns, in 1944, and only one Bay Area World Series, between the San Francisco Giants and Oakland Athletics, in 1989.

Both the Mets and Yankees believe that this year is different. Armed with the richest owner, hedge-fund billionaire Steve Cohen, the Mets spent so lavishly during the winter that they now have the fattest payroll: $268.288 million, according to Spotrac.

The Yankees, still owned by the family of the late George M. Steinbrenner, rank third among the 30 teams at $247.5 million.

Sandwiched between them is the Los Angeles Dodgers, whose Spotrac payroll figure is $260.745.

Not surprisingly, the Mets will almost certainly have to survive a post-season clash with those Dodgers if they hope to meet the Yankees on the far side of October.

Just before the Memorial Day marker on the baseball calendar, six of the 10 top-paid teams were on pace to win 100 games – with the Yankees even threatening to top the single-season record of 116.

The biggest obstacle facing the Mets is the formidable juggernaut from Atlanta. The Braves have won four consecutive National League East titles and just reeled off a 10-game winning streak, tops in the majors this year, after a sputtering start.

“I haven’t looked at the standings since we left New York,” Mets manager Buck Showalter told reporters over the weekend. “All that stuff, there’s nothing we can do about it, right? When you look at how good those [National League East] teams are, it’s kind of obvious they’re going to get going.”

As play began Sunday, the Mets led the Braves by 5½ games in the standings but Atlanta would still qualify for the playoffs as a wild-card entry if the season ended immediately.

Atlanta ranks only ninth in size of payroll, according to Spotrac, but has been clicking on all cylinders since the return of All-Star right-fielder Ronald Acuna, Jr., one of the biggest talents in the game, and the promotion of rookie center-fielder Michael Harris II.

In addition, the Braves figure to benefit from the return next month of starting pitcher Mike Soroka, relievers Tyler Matzek and Kirby Yates, and left-handed slugger Eddie Rosario, the Most Valuable Player of the 2021 National League Championship Series.

The Mets, winning even without injured pitchers Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, have to rely on contributions from Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, and Scherzer, all free agent signees not with the team last year.

Comebacks by shortstop Francisco Lindor and first baseman Pete Alonso, both potential All-Stars, have given the Mets a better foundation.

Although Atlanta replaced Face of the Franchise Freddie Freeman, a Southern California product who signed with the Dodgers for six years and $162 million, the Braves also have a solid infield, with third baseman Austin Riley and newly-acquired first baseman Matt Olson anchoring the corners and shortstop Dansby Swanson enjoying a mid-season renaissance after a spotty start.

Adding former Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen (one year, $17 million) has made a good Braves bullpen better.

In the Bronx, a season of excellence has been personified by Aaron Judge, a potential 2023 free agent whose prodigious power production has made him an strong MVP contender. Aided by the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium, the team has parlayed power with potent pitching fueled by a Luis Severino comeback.

Like the Mets, the Yankees had expected considerable competition for their own division crown. But the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and Tampa Bay Rays haven’t been able to keep the deficit reasonable.

Now it boils down to the second half. What slumps will end and which new ones will start? Who will return from injury? What new injuries will interfere? Who has the easiest schedule?

For the Mets, the oldest team in the National League at 31.13 years (per USA TODAY Sports Weekly), the pivotal point of the campaign could be a five-game series with the Braves at CitiField in early August. By then, both deGrom and Scherzer should be ready – but so could Atlanta’s Rosario, Soroka, and Matzek, a left-handed strikeout artist who starred in the 2021 post-season.

The Yankees will continue to live and die by the home run – a weapon of choice for the club since the days of Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, and Mickey Mantle. Only the names are different, with Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, and Anthony Rizzo behind Judge.

It helps that New York has also received sound pitching from both their starters and relievers, even with left-handed closer Aroldis Chapman sidelined by injury.

Both teams have well-paid pitching aces, with Gerrit Cole of the Yankees earning $36 million this season and the Mets spending a combined $70.5 million on Scherzer and deGrom.

Baseball history proves, however, that it’s not always possible to purchase a pennant – or more. Sometimes, luck plays a major part in determining the identity of the last team standing.