Ukraine May Get U.S. Attack Drones That Can Strike Moscow

The U.S. is preparing to sell MQ-1C attack drones to Ukraine, according to Reuters.

If true, the Biden administration may find itself caught in a contradiction: despite a policy of not selling Ukraine long-range artillery and other weapons that can strike deep into Russian territory, it may send drones that could potentially reach Moscow and beyond.

For now, the White House is planning to sell four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones, which is a model already in use with the U.S. Army, said Reuters, citing multiple unnamed government sources. The MQ-1C has an operational range of almost 300 miles, an endurance of 27 to 40 hours depending on whether the drone is the base or Extended Range model, and can carry four Hellfire missiles.

“The sale of the General Atomics-made drones could still be blocked by Congress, the sources said, adding that there is also a risk of a last minute policy reversal that could scuttle the plan, which has been under review at the Pentagon for several weeks,” Reuters noted. The White House and Pentagon would not confirm the report for Reuters, and a Forbes query to Gray Eagle manufacturer General Atomics was not returned by press time.

The Gray Eagle would vastly improve Ukrainian drone attack capabilities. So far, the backbone of Ukraine’s drone arsenal has been Turkish-made TB-2 Bayraktar attack drones. Though their laser-guided anti-tank missiles have wreaked havoc on Russian armor, the TB-2 only has a range of 93 miles, while U.S.-made Switchblade kamikaze drones only have a range of 25 miles.

The Gray Eagle would vastly extend the reach of Ukrainian drone strikes, and allow Ukrainian drones to operate from bases more safely in the rear. Yet significantly, the U.S. is only selling the MQ-1C – a more powerful derivative of the MQ-1 Predator – rather than the much larger General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper that has largely superseded the Predator. With a range of about 1,200 miles, an MQ-9 based in the Ukrainian border city of Kharkiv could reach Moscow and St. Petersburg, and even as far as Perm in the Ural mountains.

However, while its operational combat-loaded range is only about 300 miles, an MQ-1C has a ferry range of almost 3,000 miles. Given the ingenuity and determination that Ukraine has displayed — including modified hobby drones for strike and surveillance — it would seem technically possible for the Ukrainians to conduct a drone strike deep inside Russia carrying a reduced missile load or even a small bomb.

A MQ-1C only flies at a maximum speed of 173 miles per hour – and cruises at a leisurely 155 miles per hour – so it should be easy pickings for Russian air defense fighters and anti-aircraft missiles. But given that the Russian military has had little success in stopping Ukrainian drone strikes inside Ukraine, a Ukrainian Gray Eagle flying low across the Russian countryside might evade detection and interception.

The U.S. Air Force fact sheet does note that long-range flight for the Gray Eagle, as with other drones, depends on adequate satellite communications for ground operators to control the UAV. But Ukraine might be able to improvise a satellite command link: Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites, for example, have been providing satellite services for Ukrainian civilian and military users.

So far, Ukraine appears to have refrained from attacking inside Russia, though Ukrainian helicopters may have attacked supply depots in the border city of Belgorod. But Ukrainians have been increasingly frustrated by the superior range of Russian artillery and cruise missiles that can hit Ukrainian troops and towns while remaining out of range of counterfire. Not surprisingly, at the top of Ukraine’s shopping list has been longer-range weapons such as U.S. HIMARS multiple rocket launchers with a range of 50 miles.

Ukraine is getting HIMARS, but only after promising Washington that the rockets wouldn’t be used to attack Russian territory. Launching drones into Russia would risk NATO political and military support, as well as potentially trigger a strong Russian escalation such as use of chemical weapons. But as the war grinds on, and Ukrainian strength and morale wear down, sending drones to strike deep inside Russia may be a temptation too difficult to resist.