As Jacob deGrom Nears Return, Is Opt-Out Still Coming?

Over the weekend, the New York Mets got positive news on Jacob deGrom’s recovery. Rehabbing from a shoulder injury that has had him sidelined since spring training, deGrom recently started long-tossing from 135 feet. The encouraging word came via deGrom, who should start throwing off of a mound soon.

“I feel completely normal,” deGrom told reporters on Saturday. “So I think that’s where it’s going to be like, do we push it? Do we not? That will be the discussion over the next few days. And when we get on the mound, what is the safest way to go about this?”

This means that deGrom is probably in line to return in late June or early July, assuming that things keep progressing like they have lately.

The bigger question for deGrom comes much later than this summer though. He has previously promised that he will opt out of his five-year, $137.5 million contract at the end of this season, and regardless of how well he performs or what happens with him injury-wise.

If deGrom were to choose to stay for his age-35 season in New York, he will get $30.5 million in 2023, and the Mets have a $32.5 million club option for 2024.

Opting out after the 2022 season might seem like a risky move, given that at best he will have pitched for only half of the year this season. But when a group of agents were polled recently, many of them said that they thought teams would only need to see a few starts from deGrom in 2022 to feel comfortable signing him, and some even said they would sign him regardless of whether he pitched this season at all.

At this stage in his career, it is very doubtful that deGrom will be looking for a contract that extends more than a few years. Despite his injuries, deGrom is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and his new teammate Max Scherzer might have helped create a precedent for how other teams might approach a deGrom contract. Bumping deGrom up to around $40 million a year and making it a three-year deal, like Scherzer’s contract, would work for most teams. It helps too that deGrom is younger — this is his age-34 season — so teams could choose to get a little bolder and make it a four or even five-year deal.

Interested teams would have to consider that deGrom spent time on the injured list in 2021 as well. He hit the 60-day IL last July, but deGrom was still able to make 15 starts and post a 1.08 ERA and 7-2 record. When healthy, he is in the elite tier of starting pitchers.

If deGrom does indeed opt out, the nature of this year’s injury might help his cause with potential suitors.

“I don’t really have any [reservations], after talking to doctors,” deGrom said. “Normally, bone heals stronger. So the last report was good, and they said it was completely healed. Now, it’s just making sure it handles the throwing and nothing pops up. But the way it’s gone so far, I feel great.”

It helps, too, that deGrom has never really suffered major injuries at the big league level before last year. He underwent Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer, but throughout most of his major league career, deGrom has been healthy.

The question that teams who want to sign him will have to wrestle with is whether they trust that he can return to his former, healthier self, or whether deGrom’s injury woes of 2021 and now 2022 are just the first dominoes to tip in what will become a cascade of further health problems.

Assuming that deGrom holds to his word and does choose to opt out this winter, teams will get the chance to weigh that question.